Weekly Report (Apr 27–May 3, 2026)
Weekly Market Pulse
Hey everyone the week of April 27 through May 3 logged $955,259 across 6,794 units and 5,793 orders on the tracked cohort. That’s the third straight weekly decline since the Secrets of Strixhaven launch wave peaked: down from $1.10M / 7,419 units last week, which was itself down from $1.21M / 8,708 the week before. SoS still controls roughly 63% of tracked revenue, but that’s cooled from 73% last week as the initial rush fades.
| Product | Revenue | Units | VWAP | WoW |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SoS Collector Booster Display | $229,715.91 | 476 | $482.60 | -3.62% |
| SoS Play Booster Display | $108,364.63 | 809 | $133.95 | -2.16% |
| SoS Commander Deck Case | $88,275.78 | 394 | $224.05 | -6.84% |
| TMNT Collector Booster Display | $32,923.02 | 87 | $378.43 | +3.36% |
| SoS Codex Bundle | $32,019.98 | 176 | $181.93 | -6.43% |
| FINAL FANTASY Play Booster Display | $29,348.27 | 193 | $152.06 | -13.52% |
| SoS Play Booster Display Case | $26,328.89 | 37 | $711.59 | -5.72% |
| FINAL FANTASY Collector Booster Display | $23,270.60 | 20 | $1,163.53 | +5.70% |
| Edge of Eternities Play Booster Display | $19,790.93 | 155 | $127.68 | -7.32% |
| LTR Commander Decks Set of 4 | $19,741.35 | 92 | $214.58 | +2.21% |
Sell-through rates across SoS products are still strong most turning over inventory more than once per week but pricing is softening across the board. Every SoS Commander precon dropped 6–10% in VWAP except Witherbloom Pestilence, which bucked the trend and gained. Outside SoS, the TMNT Collector Booster Display held its #4 revenue position at $32.9K and the Edge of Eternities Play Booster more than doubled its unit volume (73 → 155) in its second full week of availability.
Following up on last week’s watch items: the FINAL FANTASY Play Booster “supply-tightening / price-lag” thesis did not produce a price increase. Supply continued contracting (avg qty 353.1 -> 291.5, -17.46%), but VWAP dropped $175.84 -> $152.06 (-13.52%) as volume doubled from 93 to 193 units. The Secrets of Strixhaven Codex Bundle also didn’t follow supply tightening upward demand surged to 176 units (from 85) with sell-through 1.9892, but VWAP continued sliding to $181.93 (-6.43%). On the SoS Commander precon restock watch: supply did not continue filling in. The restock wave was fully absorbed all five individual precons drew down inventory with sell-through above 1.0.
The daily breakdown sloped downward all week: $161,594 on Sunday tapering to $112,209 by Saturday with no mid-week bounce, a normal post-launch decay pattern.
Top Gainers
Secret of Strixhaven Bundle leads TCGPlayer gainers with VWAP $68.62 -> $79.72 (+16.18%) on 71 units / 67 orders / $5,659.93 revenue. Supply dipped avg qty 58.3 -> 52.5 (-10.06%) while sellers expanded 9.3 -> 10.3, sell-through 1.3533. The only SoS sealed product with a double-digit VWAP increase on meaningful volume this week.
FINAL FANTASY Commander Deck FINAL FANTASY XIV Scions and Spellcraft climbed VWAP $57.32 -> $64.14 (+11.89%) on 38 units / $2,437.28. The only FF Commander precon posting a meaningful price gain the others were flat to slightly negative. Supply slightly tighter at avg qty 123.9 -> 117.3 (-5.34%), sellers 52.1 -> 47.6 (-8.53%), sell-through 0.3240.
Tarkir Dragonstorm Commander Deck Sultai Arisen posted VWAP $46.62 -> $51.78 (+11.07%) on 58 units / $3,003.35. Supply contracted sharply: avg qty 118.2 -> 93.7 (-20.69%) with sellers thinning from 51.0 to 43.3 (-15.15%). Sell-through 0.6189. Real tightening with price follow-through.
The Lord of the Rings Tales of Middle-earth Commander Deck Food and Fellowship rose VWAP $60.90 -> $66.08 (+8.51%) on 45 units (up from 27) / $2,973.62. Supply expanded slightly at avg qty 123.4 -> 131.9 (+6.91%) but demand absorbed it. Sell-through 0.3412. Part of a broader LTR sealed appreciation trend.
Secrets of Strixhaven Commander Deck Witherbloom Pestilence gained VWAP $58.81 -> $63.74 (+8.38%) on 132 units / $8,414.01 the tightest SoS Commander precon by supply. Avg qty 86.6 -> 57.6 (-33.51%), sell-through 2.2928. New sellers are entering (18.2 -> 22.3, +22.39%) but can’t keep pace with demand. Highest sell-through in the dataset outside the SoS Commander Deck Case.
Universes Beyond The Lord of the Rings Tales of Middle-earth Set Booster Box moved VWAP $349.73 -> $378.27 (+8.16%) on 23 units / $8,700.30. Supply contracting: avg qty 71.2 -> 48.6 (-31.68%), sellers 17.8 -> 13.7 (-22.74%). Sell-through 0.4731. The slow, steady LTR sealed appreciation continues this product is approaching its third anniversary and still climbing.
Secrets of Strixhaven Witherbloom Prerelease Pack rose VWAP $51.56 -> $55.01 (+6.68%) on 40 units / $2,200.42. Supply drew down hard: avg qty 46.1 -> 25.9 (-43.74%), sellers 15.0 -> 11.6 (-22.94%), sell-through 1.5427. Prerelease packs thinning out as expected in the general-availability window, but Witherbloom is one of the few gaining price against that current.
Top Decliners
FINAL FANTASY Play Booster Display dropped VWAP $175.84 -> $152.06 (-13.52%) on 193 units (doubled from 93) / 153 orders / $29,348.27 revenue the biggest price decline on major volume in this week’s data. Supply continued contracting avg qty 353.1 -> 291.5 (-17.46%) with seller count flat at ~100.5. Sell-through 0.6621. This was last week’s “supply-tightening / price-lag” watch item; the lag resolved to the downside.
Secrets of Strixhaven Draft Night fell VWAP $96.63 -> $84.99 (-12.04%) on 143 units (up from 88) / 110 orders / $12,153.62. Supply grew slightly (avg qty 115.8 -> 127.1, +9.72%), sellers 29.2 -> 30.5. Sell-through 1.1251. Demand is still there inventory is turning over but general availability supply is catching up and pulling the price down.
Secrets of Strixhaven Lorehold Prerelease Pack slid VWAP $34.39 -> $30.77 (-10.52%) on 63 units / $1,938.53. Supply contracting avg qty 136.8 -> 95.4 (-30.27%), sellers 34.8 -> 25.5 (-26.58%), sell-through 0.6607. Continuing the SoS prerelease pack compression trend we flagged last week these packs are settling into post-launch pricing as the early-access premium evaporates.
Secrets of Strixhaven Commander Deck Silverquill Influence dipped VWAP $75.18 -> $67.61 (-10.07%) on 193 units / $13,049.14. Still the priciest individual SoS Commander precon, but normalizing from its launch premium. Supply drew down avg qty 195.4 -> 132.8 (-32.07%), sellers slightly up 48.8 -> 51.1, sell-through 1.4539. High demand, shrinking inventory, but price still comes down classic post-release normalization.
Marvel Super Heroes Play Booster Display declined VWAP $171.01 -> $153.90 (-10.00%) on 56 units (up from 24) / $8,618.51. Supply grew slightly avg qty 420.6 -> 431.4 (+2.56%), sell-through a thin 0.1298. 431 units listed with only 56 moving is a lot of idle inventory sitting on shelves, and that weight is pushing price down.
Lorwyn Eclipsed Commander Deck Dance of the Elements dropped VWAP $29.61 -> $26.73 (-9.72%) on 69 units (up from 39) / $1,844.27. Avg qty 311.8 -> 282.5 (-9.39%), sell-through 0.2442. At under $27, this is approaching the floor for Commander precons on TCGPlayer where shipping costs start to eat into margins for sellers.
On Manapool, several SoS Commander precons showed steeper percentage declines: Silverquill Influence (Manapool) VWAP $76.44 -> $58.38 (-23.63%, 10 units), Prismari Artistry (Manapool) $51.32 -> $40.81 (-20.49%, 28 units), and Lorehold Spirit (Manapool) $52.22 -> $43.02 (-17.62%, 30 units). These are thin-volume moves, but they suggest Manapool sellers are pricing more aggressively as post-launch inventory arrives on that platform.
Supply / Velocity Read-Through
The broadest supply signal this week: SoS sell-through rates remain above 1.0 across most products despite being two weeks past general availability launch. Every individual Commander precon and the Commander Deck Case are still turning over inventory at least once per week.
| Product | Sell-Through | Avg Qty | Supply Δ | Sellers Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SoS Commander Deck Case | 2.9198 | 134.9 | -16.14% | +1.57% |
| SoS Witherbloom Pestilence | 2.2928 | 57.6 | -33.51% | +22.39% |
| SoS Collector Booster Display | 2.1623 | 220.1 | +11.98% | +41.21% |
| SoS Codex Bundle | 1.9892 | 88.5 | +18.30% | +10.66% |
| SoS Play Booster Display | 1.5483 | 522.5 | -10.26% | +14.91% |
| SoS Witherbloom Prerelease | 1.5427 | 25.9 | -43.74% | -22.94% |
| SoS Lorehold Spirit | 1.4804 | 128.3 | -32.38% | +0.54% |
| SoS Silverquill Influence | 1.4539 | 132.8 | -32.07% | +4.65% |
| SoS Collector Booster Pack | 1.4145 | 207.1 | +19.16% | +19.03% |
| SoS Bundle | 1.3533 | 52.5 | -10.06% | +10.20% |
| SoS Prismari Artistry | 1.1995 | 165.9 | -21.33% | +14.63% |
| SoS Draft Night | 1.1251 | 127.1 | +9.72% | +4.26% |
| SoS Quandrix Unlimited | 1.1154 | 187.4 | -17.05% | +14.84% |
Seller counts on SoS are expanding rapidly across the board. Collector Booster Display sellers grew from 55.7 to 78.6 (+41.21%), Collector Booster Pack sellers from 21.3 to 25.4 (+19.03%), Play Booster sellers from 66.7 to 76.6 (+14.91%), Quandrix from 42.6 to 48.9 (+14.84%). New sellers see margin opportunity and are entering the market, which is why prices are softening even though sell-through is high supply is being replenished from new entrants as fast as it’s being sold.
Outside SoS, the tightest inventory situations on TCGPlayer:
- TMNT Collector Booster Display: sell-through 0.9962, avg qty 92.9 -> 87.3 (-5.97%) turning over essentially 100% of listed inventory per week
- MH3 Commander Deck Eldrazi Incursion: sell-through 0.9209, avg qty 52.2 -> 41.3 (-20.90%)
- Bloomburrow Commander Deck Peace Offering: sell-through 0.8695, avg qty 76.0 -> 67.9 (-10.76%)
Heavy-supply / low-velocity watch list products with large listed inventory and sluggish turnover:
- TMNT Prerelease Pack: avg qty 900.6 (+11.62%), sell-through 0.1088
- Spider-Man Play Booster Display: avg qty 614.5, sell-through 0.0586
- TMNT Play Booster Display: avg qty 627.1, sell-through 0.2201
- Lorwyn Eclipsed Play Booster: avg qty 584.3 (+7.42%), sell-through 0.1061
Seller Geography: 100% coverage this week across 347 located sellers. California leads at 12.7% of listed inventory quantity (4,141 units), followed by New York (8.9%), Idaho (5.7%), North Carolina (5.5%), and Ohio (5.5%). Idaho’s outsized share relative to its population continues to be driven by concentrated high-volume sellers rather than broad geographic demand. The top individual-city listings Naples, ME (898 units), Liberty, IN (896), Westminster, CA (875), Platteville, WI (863) are each dominated by individual large sellers, together accounting for roughly 10.8% of all tracked inventory. The Pacific Northwest corridor (OR + WA) combines for 8.8% of supply, with Ontario, OR (730 units) as a notable hub.
Data quality flag: The Secrets of Strixhaven Collector Booster Omega Pack (64 units, VWAP $46.36) is flagged low_coverage_supply and probable_data_artifact. No baseline supply data is available for week-over-week comparison. Its sell-through of 0.8571 may be directionally useful, but supply signals on this product should be treated as unreliable.
Opinionated Takeaways
Opinion corner grain of salt as always.
Last week we flagged Final Fantasy supply dropping ~50% with price flat as a setup for upward price movement. Instead, VWAP fell 13.52% while volume doubled. Supply contraction from sellers exiting doesn’t necessarily lead to higher prices sometimes those sellers already priced aggressively on the way out, and the remaining supply is concentrated at lower price points. Volume doubling at lower prices is distribution, not accumulation. I’m updating my read on supply-tightening signals: supply contraction is a necessary but not sufficient condition for price increases. You also need stable or declining volume to confirm that the tightening is scarcity-driven rather than liquidation-driven.
SoS Commander precons are 1–2 weeks from equilibrium
Every precon still has sell-through above 1.0, but prices dropped 6–10% WoW across the board while new sellers flooded in (Witherbloom sellers +22.39%, Prismari +14.63%, Quandrix +14.84%). The channel sees margin opportunity, so supply keep coming. Witherbloom Pestilence is the one to watch tightest supply (avg qty 57.6), highest sell-through (2.2928), and the only SoS Commander precon whose price actually went up this week (+8.38%). If any precon holds premium pricing long-term, it’s probably that one.
LTR sealed is the cycle’s quiet winner
While everyone watches SoS and TMNT, the LTR Set Booster Box climbed to $378.27 (+8.16%) with supply contracting 31.68%. The Commander Decks Set of 4 generated $19.7K this week at $214.58 VWAP. This is a product approaching its third year on the market that’s still finding buyers at higher prices as inventory gets scarce. Universes Beyond: Lord of the Rings sealed is in genuine long-term appreciation territory, and it’s not getting attention because it’s neither flashy nor new. That’s usually when the best sealed gains happen after the spotlight moves elsewhere.
What To Watch Next Week
— The MTGsold Team
Calculation Notes & Disclaimers
- Metrics are based on MTGsold internal sales/listing snapshots for the report window only.
avg qty= average of daily inventory (most complete scrape per day, by seller coverage), not a sum of all intraday listings.sell-through=units sold this week / avg qty this week; values above 1 indicate inventory turned over multiple times.- Percentage changes are week-over-week versus the prior-week baseline; very small baselines can exaggerate % moves.
- Listings are marketplace snapshots and may include relists, temporary removals, and scrape gaps, so flagged low-confidence moves should be treated cautiously.
- Marketplace sections are segmented to avoid cross-stream blending of metrics.