Weekly Report (Sep 7–13, 2026)


Weekly Market Pulse

Revenue
$1,146,941▴ from $851K
Units Sold
7,010▴ from 5,856
Sellers
583
WoW Revenue
+34.9%

Nearly half of everything sold on TCGPlayer this week came from a set that doesn’t release until October 2. Reality Fracture’s September 8 Debut Stream turned its preorder book into the largest single-set sales event we’ve tracked: 2,415 units, $520,243, 45.3% of all TCGPlayer revenue. $1,146,941 across 7,010 units and 5,861 orders over 79 products, revenue up +34.9% from $850,526, units up +19.7% from 5,856. Strip out RF, and the rest of the market did $626,698, roughly in line with prior weeks. The Hobbit added $290,177 across 1,649 units. Together those two sets drove $810,420, or 70.7% of the week.

Manapool did $108,833 across 680 units and 494 orders over 49 products, up from $64,518 and 482 units last week. RF drove much of that surge too: the Play Booster Display alone did 126 units at a 1.74 sell-through on Manapool. The seller pool ticked down to 583 located sellers from 585.

ProductRevenueUnitsVWAPWoW
Reality Fracture Coll Booster Di…$283,334.46535$529.60-0.39%
Reality Fracture Play Booster Di…$149,695.23990$151.21+2.53%
The Hobbit Coll Booster Display$121,091.74150$807.28-0.27%
The Hobbit Play Booster Display$85,035.04530$160.44-5.84%
Reality Fracture Secret Lair Bundle$50,263.50263$191.12-0.72%
The Hobbit Gift Bundle$43,372.34369$117.54-10.90%
FF Play Booster Display$22,162.3292$240.89+4.42%
Star Trek Coll Booster Display$20,272.0729$699.04-0.04%
Lorwyn Eclipsed Play Booster Dis…$15,533.25132$117.68+4.78%
LOTR Scene Boxes Set of 4$15,244.3777$197.98-12.30%
Top revenue products (item revenue, USD)

Top Gainers

Price
$221.75+15.71%
Units
3918 orders
Sell-through
0.4586
Avg qty
85.0-10.68%
Sellers
29.8-12.93%

Secrets of Strixhaven Commander Deck Case leads TCGPlayer gainers, and it doesn’t have the thin-tape excuse. Volume nearly doubled into a thinning shelf. Supply down, sellers down, and the price climbed anyway. I didn’t find an external catalyst. What I did find is that two Strixhaven Commander products sit in the top three gainers this week. That’s a line-wide signal, and it showed up without a tournament result, ban-list change, or content-creator spike to explain it.

Price
$32.76+13.58%
Units
3130 orders
Sell-through
0.1524
Avg qty
203.5-3.38%
Sellers
68.4+0.07%

Aetherdrift Commander Deck Living Energy gained on TCGPlayer for a second straight week, both times double-digit. Supply barely moved. Two consecutive weeks of this on a deck trading in the low $30s is worth watching. Either the deck found a Commander build that’s pulling demand, or a few sellers ran dry and the price drifted up in the gap. I don’t know which, and at 31 units I can’t tell from the tape alone.

Price
$59.62+12.10%
Units
2424 orders
Sell-through
0.3698
Avg qty
64.9-17.77%
Sellers
28.2-20.08%

Secrets of Strixhaven Commander Deck Witherbloom Pestilence is the second Strixhaven Commander product in the top three. Supply fell nearly a fifth, sellers dropped 20%, and the price responded. At $59.62 and 24 units, the base is small enough that a single buyer cleaning out a few sellers could explain the move. But paired with the Case’s gain, the pattern is harder to dismiss.

Price
$59.78+9.99%
Units
7470 orders
Sell-through
1.0615
Avg qty
69.7+3.90%
Sellers
33.3+7.20%

The Hobbit Scene Box Crack the Plates bounced right back. I covered this box’s -10.38% markdown last week, and the week before that I covered its +13.46% recovery. Now it’s up again, back near $60, sell-through above 1.0 on a flat shelf. Two weeks of whipsaw between $54 and $60 with supply steady. The floor at $54 is holding and the demand is real. This box clears its shelf every week. But the ceiling at $60 keeps pulling it back. That kind of oscillation usually means the price is close to settled.

Price
$42.28+9.15%
Units
7571 orders
Sell-through
0.3109
Avg qty
241.2-15.98%
Sellers
63.2-11.67%

Lorwyn Eclipsed Commander Deck Dance of the Elements gained on TCGPlayer with volume spiking and supply draining. Seventy-five units on a shelf that shrank 16% is a demand-led move. The deck is still priced in the low $40s, where Lorwyn Commander products have been settling since launch-week repricing ended.

Reality Fracture Draft Night
Reality Fracture Draft Night
$7,937 weekly revenue
Price
$104.44+7.32%
Units
7669 orders
Sell-through
0.9557
Avg qty
79.5+4.11%
Sellers
14.7+13.44%

Bloomburrow Commander Deck Peace Offering is the tightest Commander deck on the board. A 1.1742 sell-through means the shelf turned over and then some. Supply fell a quarter, sellers fell 18%, and the price firmed. I flagged the quiet drain in the Bloomburrow Commander line two weeks ago when Animated Army was the headline. Peace Offering has now taken over as the drain’s center of gravity. Animated Army’s shelf stabilized this week; Peace Offering’s kept contracting.

On Manapool, Universes Beyond Assassins Creed Beyond Booster Pack (Manapool) rose $5.52 -> $7.00 (+26.81%) on 4 units. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Commander Deck Turtle Power (Manapool) gained +18.29% to $59.99 on 11 units, the mirror image of its TCGPlayer -4.90%. The two-venue split continues for a second week, now with the polarity reversed. Tarkir Dragonstorm Commander Deck Jeskai Striker (Manapool) gained +16.57% to $55.57 on 14 units with a 0.99 sell-through, almost clearing the shelf. Marvel Super Heroes Collector Booster Pack (Manapool) rose +12.29% to $42.69 on 3 units. Jeskai Striker is the only Manapool gainer this week with enough volume and sell-through to trust as a directional signal; the rest are single-digit order counts.

Price movers — week over week

Top Decliners

Price
$197.98-12.30%
Units
7765 orders
Sell-through
1.0319
Avg qty
74.6+26.99%
Sellers
25.5-5.23%

The Lord of the Rings Tales of Middle earth Scene Boxes Set of 4 leads TCGPlayer decliners. Last week this was the tightest inventory on the board, sell-through 1.31 at 58.8 avg qty. This week supply arrived (+27.0% to 74.6), and the price broke below $200 for the first time in weeks. Demand didn’t flinch. Sell-through is still above 1.0, still turning the shelf weekly. The correction is entirely supply-driven: more inventory arrived and sellers repriced to move it. The product is still tight, just less rare than it was seven days ago.

The Hobbit Gift Bundle
The Hobbit Gift Bundle
$43,372 weekly revenue
Price
$117.54-10.90%
Units
369272 orders
Sell-through
0.4227
Avg qty
872.9+76.16%
Sellers
133.6+110.61%

The Hobbit Gift Bundle entered our tracked table this week after the database pull I made last report. The slide hasn’t slowed. Supply more than doubled from last week’s launch-week floor, sellers went from 63 to 134, and the price fell another 10.9% to $117.54. From ~$218 at launch to $117 in ten days, with 873 units now on the shelf. It’s still above the $89.99 MSRP, but every week since launch has moved it closer. I said last week the question was whether the slide finds a floor. It hasn’t.

Price
$49.26-9.39%
Units
303298 orders
Sell-through
0.3722
Avg qty
814.0+34.46%
Sellers
32.9+19.97%

Reality Fracture Commander Deck Multiverse Reforged is the one RF product where the preorder surge came with a markdown. Volume jumped 3.7x while the price fell. At $49.26 with 814 units of listed depth and 33 sellers, this is the cheapest RF product relative to its shelf size. The Commander deck absorbed the debut-week enthusiasm at a discount. The Play and Collector Displays held or rose into their volume surges; this deck didn’t.

Price
$70.37-8.49%
Units
13987 orders
Sell-through
0.4413
Avg qty
315.0+16.33%
Sellers
61.3+25.35%

The Hobbit Collector Booster Pack fell on TCGPlayer with sellers growing 25% while the per-pack price dropped. That’s the singles-cracking signature: stores opening Collector Booster Displays for chase cards list the surplus packs, and competition between those listings pushes the per-pack ask down. The Display itself held flat at $807. The margin is in the singles, and the pack is the byproduct.

Price
$20.82-7.60%
Units
7530 orders
Sell-through
0.0932
Avg qty
804.4+0.34%
Sellers
64.0+3.23%

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Prerelease Pack fell on TCGPlayer with volume surging from 29 to 75 units into the discount. The 804-unit shelf didn’t move. Same clearance shape as last week’s Marvel Super Heroes Bundle: sellers marked down, buyers took the deal, and the pile barely shrank. At $20.82 and that depth, this product has a long way to go before supply pressure eases.

Price
$65.31-6.75%
Units
8582 orders
Sell-through
0.9813
Avg qty
86.6+20.90%
Sellers
41.5+17.15%

The Hobbit Scene Box Treasures of Smaug fell on TCGPlayer after supply arrived +20.9% and the price gave back last week’s gain. Last week I noted the contraction was over and the excess sellers were gone. This week new supply showed up and the price responded immediately. Smaug is more supply-reactive than Crack the Plates. When inventory arrives, the price drops; when it thins, the price firms. At a 0.98 sell-through the demand is there, but the price follows supply arrivals week to week.

On Manapool, The Hobbit Play Booster Pack (Manapool) cratered -40.18% to $5.85 on 9 units, erasing last week’s +57.42% gain on thin-tape noise. FINAL FANTASY Play Booster Pack (Manapool) fell -16.85% to $8.85 on 18 units, its second straight large swing. The Lost Caverns of Ixalan Commander Deck Ahoy Mateys (Manapool) fell -16.68% to $41.66 on 3 units, flagged baseline_small_supply. The Hobbit Scene Box Crack the Plates (Manapool) fell -12.66% to $57.26 on 4 units, diverging from its TCGPlayer +10.0% gain. One venue up, one down, both on thin tape. The Hobbit Play Booster Display (Manapool) fell -7.03% to $162.68 on 26 units (up from 13), directionally aligned with its TCGPlayer-side markdown.

Supply / Velocity Read-Through

Reality Fracture dominated the week. The September 8 Debut Stream revealed around 45 cards (the Empower Jace mechanic, five elder sphinxes, the echoed-pair concept, slow-land reprints), and the preorder book responded with the largest single-set volume surge we’ve tracked. Total RF TCGPlayer sales: 2,415 units, $520,243, up from 648 units the week before.

The RF Play Booster Display shelf turned over four times in seven days. Supply actually shrank -40.5% as demand outran it, and the price was barely up (+2.53% to $151.21), still below the $164.70 pack-equivalent MSRP. At that price, the box is still cheaper than buying 30 packs at MSRP. The volume is the signal here.

The RF Collector Booster Display supply grew +60.2% and demand still overwhelmed it. Even a 60% shelf expansion couldn’t keep pace. The price held flat at $529.60, already 64% above the $323.88 loose-pack MSRP. On September 11, Wizards announced regional product delays: North America only loses Omega Collector Booster single packs at mass retail. EMEA loses Collector Boosters and Secret Lair Bundles. APAC loses Collector Boosters, Bundles, and Commander decks. The North American Collector Booster Display is on schedule. That distinction matters, because a blanket “RF Collector Boosters are delayed” narrative would be wrong for the US market.

The RF Secret Lair Bundle went 83 to 263 units, sell-through 1.36, supply doubled. Wizards confirmed this is a recurring product, launching with every future “Magic Multiverse” set starting with Nauctis. At $89.99 MSRP, the included boosters alone run ~$86.92 at pack MSRP, so the bundle’s raw EV at retail is near-breakeven before promos. At $191 on the secondary market, buyers are paying more than $100 of premium for two randomized exclusive promos and scarcity. Only 10.4 sellers hold this shelf. On Manapool, the RF Play Booster Display (Manapool) mirrored the TCGPlayer surge: 47 to 126 units at a 1.74 sell-through. The RF Collector Booster Display (Manapool) went 13 to 66 units at a 1.25 sell-through. Both venues confirm the demand.

The RF Bundle jumped 27 to 106 units with supply +80%. The RF Prerelease Pack went 56 to 142 units, supply more than doubled, sellers +51%, and the price still rose +6.60%. Prerelease events start September 25. The RF Draft Night did 76 units at a 0.96 sell-through, the tightest RF product outside the main displays. The RF Commander Deck Multiverse Reforged is covered in decliners. On Manapool, the RF Secret Lair Bundle (Manapool) added +68.6% supply. The RF Commander Deck Multiverse Reforged (Manapool) added +58.4% supply. RF Draft Night (Manapool) is flagged separately in data quality.

The Hobbit line softened across the board. Total Hobbit TCGPlayer volume was 1,649 units and $290,177, down from 1,961 units last week. The Play Booster Display continued its markdown: $170.39 to $160.44 (-5.84%), 530 units, sell-through 0.9386. Supply tightened -12.4% (644.5 to 564.7 avg qty). The supply wave from last week absorbed, and new supply hasn’t refilled at the same rate. The price softened anyway. The $170 clearing level broke without a supply wave pushing it, which means the markdown is demand-led now, and the next floor isn’t obvious from the data. The Collector Booster Display held flat: $807.28 (-0.27%), 150 units, sell-through 0.79. Stable. The Gift Bundle is covered in decliners (873 avg qty, the heaviest Hobbit shelf, and the only one still flooding in).

The Hobbit Prerelease Pack supply drained -35.8% (523.7 to 336.5 avg qty) as units halved (188 to 104) and the price stabilized at $39.12 (-1.0%). Post-launch clearance looks done. The Hobbit Collector Booster Pack is covered in decliners. The Hobbit Scene Boxes are covered in gainers and decliners. The Hobbit Draft Night held steady: $133.06 (-1.88%), 55 units, sell-through 0.28, supply +8.5%. On Manapool, The Hobbit Gift Bundle (Manapool) saw supply +44.0%. The Hobbit Play Booster Pack (Manapool) cratered -40.2% on 9 units, thin tape. The Hobbit Draft Night (Manapool) saw supply +29.7%.

Bloomburrow Play Booster Display posted its second consecutive week of ~40% supply contraction: avg qty 208.1 to 131.4 (-36.9%), sellers -7.3%, price firm at $198.17 (+0.78%), 50 units, sell-through 0.38. In three weeks, listed depth has fallen from 365 to 131, a 64% contraction, with the price flat and units steady. Last week I flagged speculator buyout activity as a plausible read. The tell I set up (whether the depth reappears at higher asks, confirming someone took a position) hasn’t fired yet. The drain continues. The cause doesn’t.

Star Trek Collector Booster Display supply reversed: +25.1% (39.3 to 49.2 avg qty), sellers +28.0% (8.0 to 10.3), price frozen at $699.04 (-0.04%), 29 units, sell-through 0.59. Three weeks of supply decline ended the same week RF spoilers opened. The Play Booster Display leveled off: supply flat +1.2% at 113.1 avg qty, 67 units (down from 73), price $156.14 (+1.77%). The accumulation narrative I wrote in last week’s takeaways doesn’t survive the supply reversal. RF’s Debut Stream pulled preorder capital away from Star Trek. That’s the read that fits the timing, though I can’t prove the mechanism directly. Nine weeks to the November 13 release.

The Lost Caverns of Ixalan Commander Deck Explorers of the Deep saw supply continue building +31.7% (30.8 to 40.6), price flat at $96.30. Last week the drain reversed and demand absorbed the returning sellers. This week the restock held and the price stayed. The repricing stuck. On Manapool, The Lost Caverns of Ixalan Commander Deck Blood Rites (Manapool) drained -28.7% of supply. Edge of Eternities Play Booster Display tightened again: supply -20.7%, price +5.71% to $186.23, sell-through 0.63. On Manapool, Edge of Eternities Play Booster Display (Manapool) drained -30.2% of supply. FINAL FANTASY Play Booster Display supply fell -20.5%, price +4.42% to $240.89, sell-through 0.62. On Manapool, FINAL FANTASY Play Booster Display (Manapool) supply grew +31.3%, the opposite direction. FINAL FANTASY Play Booster Pack (Manapool) fell -16.9%. Mystery Booster 2 Booster Display continued tightening: supply -21.8%, price +4.71% to $295.93. Lorwyn Eclipsed Play Booster Display normalized after last week’s volume doubling: 132 units (from 321) at $117.68 (+4.78%). The clearing price at $112 to $118 has held for two weeks; volume is settling into it.

Carve-out: Card Kingdom

Card Kingdom announced what they called a growth investment from ZMC Management. Their union filled in what the announcement left out: ZMC’s acquisition vehicle, Citadel Acquisition LLC (no relation to Ken Griffin’s Citadel), is buying a majority stake. This is a private equity deal, closing late September. ZMC is a PE investor that targets founder-led middle-market media businesses, with roughly $2.1 billion across four funds since 2008. No valuation, no purchase price, no governance details have been disclosed.

If you crack boxes and sell singles, this matters to you directly. Card Kingdom’s buylist is where a huge portion of that trade settles. It’s the standing bid for thousands of cards nobody else actively quotes. And when a PE fund takes majority ownership of an inventory-heavy business, the playbook is predictable. Working-capital efficiency comes first. That means tighter buylist spreads, faster inventory turns, less willingness to sit on slow-moving product.

I’m not predicting price hikes or layoffs. I’m telling you the incentive structure changes. If your margins on cracking a Collector Display and dumping the singles through Card Kingdom’s buylist narrow by even a few points, you might decide it’s not worth opening the next box. Multiply that across enough sellers and you’ve got a shift in how much sealed product gets opened for arbitrage, which feeds back into both singles supply and sealed demand.

We’ll be measuring buylist depth, acceptance rates, and spreads before and after the deal closes. That’s the data that’ll tell you whether anything actually changed, or whether ZMC just left the machine running.

ProductSell-ThroughAvg QtySupply ΔSellers Δ
Reality Fracture Play Booster Di…4.1672237.6-40.50%-17.65%
Reality Fracture Coll Booster Di…2.8508187.7+60.17%-19.88%
Reality Fracture Secret Lair Bundle1.3603193.3+101.68%+14.72%
Bloomburrow Cmdr Peace Offering1.174258.8-25.93%-17.89%
The Hobbit Scene Box Crack the P…1.061569.7+3.90%+7.20%
The Lost Caverns of Ixalan Cmdr …1.045973.6-19.37%-7.50%
LOTR Scene Boxes Set of 41.031974.6+26.99%-5.23%

    Tightest inventory on TCGPlayer: Reality Fracture Play Booster Display (sell-through 4.1672 at 237.6 avg qty), Reality Fracture Collector Booster Display (2.8508 at 187.7), Reality Fracture Secret Lair Bundle (1.3603 at 193.3), Bloomburrow Commander Deck Peace Offering (1.1742 at 58.8), The Hobbit Scene Box Crack the Plates (1.0615 at 69.7), The Lost Caverns of Ixalan Commander Deck Blood Rites (1.0459 at 73.6), LotR Scene Boxes Set of 4 (1.0319 at 74.6, sell-through above 1 even after the 12.3% correction), The Hobbit Scene Box Treasures of Smaug (0.9813 at 86.6), Reality Fracture Draft Night (0.9557 at 79.5), The Hobbit Play Booster Display (0.9386 at 564.7).

    Heaviest inventory on TCGPlayer: Marvel Super Heroes Play Booster Display at 967.5 avg qty, The Hobbit Gift Bundle (872.9, up 76% with launch supply still arriving), Reality Fracture Commander Deck Multiverse Reforged (814.0 of preorder depth), Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Prerelease Pack (804.4), Marvel Super Heroes Prerelease Pack (771.2), Lorwyn Eclipsed Play Booster Display (656.5), Marvel Super Heroes Bundle (634.2), Marvel’s Spider-Man Play Booster Display (570.1), The Hobbit Play Booster Display (564.7, down 12% from last week, the only shelf on this list that clears itself weekly), Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Play Booster Display (513.9).

Coverage ran 100.0% across 583 located sellers, down 2 from 585 last week. Florida retook the top spot from Washington at 10.5% of located supply (14,203 units), with Washington at 9.5% (12,896), California 8.6% (11,630), New York 5.1% (6,919), Ohio 5.0% (6,755), Kentucky 4.4% (5,988), Oregon 4.1% (5,581), Rhode Island 4.0% (5,428), Texas 3.8% (5,119), and Puerto Rico 2.8% (3,812). Top cities: Seattle 10,285, Kissimmee FL 6,937, Providence RI 5,428, South Williamson KY 4,594, Brooklyn 3,082, Bayamon PR 2,800.

Reality Fracture Draft Night (Manapool) is flagged baseline_small_supply and spike_driven_supply at 14.7 avg qty, making its +87.3% supply reading unreliable. The Lost Caverns of Ixalan Commander Deck Ahoy Mateys (Manapool) is flagged baseline_small_supply; treat its -16.68% move cautiously. The Hobbit Gift Bundle (TCGPlayer) and Reality Fracture Prerelease Pack (TCGPlayer) carry probable_restock_signal, confirmed in both cases by the observed supply waves. More broadly, several Manapool pack-level movers (Hobbit Play Booster Pack -40.2% on 9 units, Assassin’s Creed Beyond Booster Pack +26.8% on 4, FINAL FANTASY Play Booster Pack -16.9% on 18) trade on order counts too thin for price-level confidence.

Supply Δ vs. Price Δ — selected products

Opinionated Takeaways

Reality Fracture claimed the market’s budget

Star Trek’s accumulation pattern broke the same week RF spoilers opened. That’s the tell. Preorder dollars have a budget, and when one set’s Debut Stream can redirect it in a single week, the products draining on speculative capital lose their bid support overnight. The speculative layer in this market is thinner than the multi-week trends make it look.

The Collector Display held price while absorbing a 60% supply wave

535 units sold, supply grew 60%, and the price didn’t move. The regional delays don’t touch the North American Collector Display. So this is unassisted demand absorbing a rapidly growing shelf at $530, already 64% above loose-pack MSRP. Whether that holds through the rest of spoiler season or front-loaded into the debut is the bet.

The Hobbit Gift Bundle is repricing in public

From ~$218 at launch to $117.54 in ten days, with supply going from 158 to 873 units and sellers from 21 to 134. Transparent price discovery, distributors and retailers all competing their allocation to market at the same time. The MSRP is $89.99. The slide has momentum and no visible floor.

Card Kingdom’s buylist just became a PE asset

When the largest independent buylist in Magic passes to institutional ownership, the incentive structure changes. A founder can choose to hold slow-moving inventory as a service to the community. A PE fund optimizes for margin and turnover. Tighter spreads are the first thing that shows up, and tighter spreads change the economics of box cracking. If it costs more to dump singles through a buylist, the arbitrage that converts sealed displays into singles gets less attractive. I can’t predict what ZMC will do. I can tell you what PE does to every inventory-heavy business it touches. We’ll measure buylist depth and spreads before and after the deal closes in late September. That’s the dataset that tells the actual story.

What To Watch Next Week

1

Reality Fracture previews close September 17, full set September 18. The debut-week surge was the biggest preorder event we’ve tracked. Whether volume sustains through the full spoiler window or front-loaded into the debut is the open question. The Play Booster Display’s 4.17 sell-through will either moderate toward something sustainable or signal that the set’s absorption rate is genuinely unusual. And does the Collector Display’s $530 level hold, build, or retrace as the full card pool removes uncertainty?

2

The Hobbit Gift Bundle’s MSRP gravity. At $117.54 with 873 units of supply and 134 sellers, the slide toward $89.99 has momentum. Whether next week brings another $10 to $15 of slippage or the first plateau will tell you if the launch-week supply wave has peaked.

3

Bloomburrow’s vanishing shelf. At 131 avg qty, down from 365 three weeks ago, either the depth stabilizes, comes back at higher asks to confirm the buyout, or keeps draining into a price breakout. Flat price and vanishing depth don’t coexist forever.

— The MTGsold Team

Calculation Notes & Disclaimers

  • Metrics are based on MTGsold internal sales/listing snapshots for the report window only.
  • avg qty = average of daily inventory (most complete scrape per day, by seller coverage), not a sum of all intraday listings.
  • sell-through = units sold this week / avg qty this week; values above 1 indicate inventory turned over multiple times.
  • Percentage changes are week-over-week versus the prior-week baseline; very small baselines can exaggerate % moves.
  • Listings are marketplace snapshots and may include relists, temporary removals, and scrape gaps, so flagged low-confidence moves should be treated cautiously.
  • Marketplace sections are segmented to avoid cross-stream blending of metrics.