Weekly Report (Aug 17–23, 2026)
Weekly Market Pulse
- Revenue
- $957,519▾ from $1.36M
- Units Sold
- 6,038▾ from 8,178
- Sellers
- 570
- WoW Revenue
- -29.8%
Revenue dropped 30%. TCGPlayer did $957,519 across 6,038 units and 4,913 orders over 81 products, down from $1,364,057 and 8,178 units. The Hobbit still owned the top of the revenue table (Collector Booster Display at $246,997, Play Booster Display at $142,969), but the drop wasn’t just Hobbit cooling. Daily volume ran 897 to 1,178 units, roughly flat across the week with no single day dominating the way the Aug 14 release spike did. The seller pool grew to 570 located sellers, 19 more than last week.
Manapool did $76,765 across 472 units and 337 orders over 40 products, down from $109,389 and 518 units.
| Product | Revenue | Units | VWAP | WoW |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Hobbit Coll Booster Display | $246,997.02 | 297 | $831.64 | +2.59% |
| The Hobbit Play Booster Display | $142,968.98 | 760 | $188.12 | -0.19% |
| Reality Fracture Coll Booster Di… | $38,780.55 | 80 | $484.76 | +2.13% |
| FF Play Booster Display | $32,629.90 | 144 | $226.60 | -1.99% |
| The Hobbit Collector Booster Pack | $27,463.53 | 373 | $73.63 | +0.01% |
| Marvel Super Heroes Coll Booster… | $23,913.36 | 51 | $468.89 | -1.27% |
| Star Trek Coll Booster Display | $23,066.72 | 33 | $698.99 | -0.11% |
| Marvel Super Heroes Play Booster… | $19,966.27 | 172 | $116.08 | -2.07% |
| SoS Cmdr Case | $18,939.01 | 96 | $197.28 | +3.55% |
| The Hobbit Collector Booster Ome… | $17,521.11 | 244 | $71.81 | +0.55% |
Top Gainers
- Price
- $43.29+14.95%
- Units
- 2113 orders
- Sell-through
- 0.0994
- Avg qty
- 211.3+1.06%
- Sellers
- 30.3-0.39%
Marvels Spider Man Collector Booster Pack leads TCGPlayer gainers for a third straight week. Twenty-one units on a 211-unit shelf isn’t much of a foundation for a 15% move, but the direction hasn’t broken. Supply and sellers are both flat. I’d take the direction and ignore the magnitude until volume shows up.
- Price
- $144.63+13.75%
- Units
- 6661 orders
- Sell-through
- 0.1841
- Avg qty
- 358.4-18.10%
- Sellers
- 100.3-25.34%
Secrets of Strixhaven Codex Bundle cooled from 160 units to 66 on TCGPlayer while the price climbed. The post-release frenzy is settling into a tighter market: fewer sellers, higher ask, and the buyers who stayed were willing to pay more. Last week the Collector Booster Pack was thinning on its own. This week the tightening spread across the whole line. Last week, that signal was isolated to the Collector Booster Pack. This week it spread to three additional products at once.
- Price
- $143.45+12.43%
- Units
- 6052 orders
- Sell-through
- 0.4775
- Avg qty
- 125.6+2.63%
- Sellers
- 11.2-14.73%
Reality Fracture Play Booster Display climbed on TCGPlayer with five weeks to the October 2 release. Units dropped from 160 to 60, but the preorder price kept building. MC Amsterdam spoilers (28 cards revealed as of Aug 22, including the serialized Bloodline Recollector at 500 copies worldwide) are pulling preorder interest forward.
- Price
- $45.55+10.14%
- Units
- 2319 orders
- Sell-through
- 0.1970
- Avg qty
- 116.7-15.67%
- Sellers
- 34.3-8.85%
Magic The Gathering Foundations Starter Collection rose on TCGPlayer on 23 units. Small tape, no story behind it.
- Price
- $43.41+9.94%
- Units
- 4237 orders
- Sell-through
- 0.1465
- Avg qty
- 286.7-7.55%
- Sellers
- 60.8-4.17%
Secret of Strixhaven Bundle is riding the same tightening thesis as the Codex Bundle on TCGPlayer, up on 42 units. The whole sealed line is compressing.
- Price
- $82.18+9.37%
- Units
- 2826 orders
- Sell-through
- 0.5659
- Avg qty
- 49.5-33.05%
- Sellers
- 15.6-9.28%
Edge of Eternities Commander Decks Set of 2 sat at roughly $75 on TCGPlayer for five weeks while supply drained steadily. This week the price finally moved. Supply fell another 33% to avg qty 49.5. The product appears to be reaching the end of active distribution, and six weeks of patient accumulation finally thinned the shelf enough for the price to respond.
On Manapool, Mystery Booster 2 Booster Pack (Manapool) rose $13.72 -> $15.98 (+16.51%) on 5 units. Bloomburrow Commander Deck Animated Army (Manapool) rose $65.95 -> $71.81 (+8.89%) on 4 units. Bloomburrow Commander Deck Peace Offering (Manapool) rose $91.63 -> $98.30 (+7.28%) on 3 units. Secrets of Strixhaven Codex Bundle (Manapool) rose $130.21 -> $139.51 (+7.14%) on 16 units, echoing the TCGPlayer gain on thinner tape. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Commander Deck Turtle Power (Manapool) rose $50.93 -> $54.51 (+7.04%) on 8 units. All Manapool gainers ran on single-digit or low-double-digit units; no move here carries real size.
Top Decliners
- Price
- $17.27-15.64%
- Units
- 6252 orders
- Sell-through
- 0.2355
- Avg qty
- 263.3+2.87%
- Sellers
- 54.1+2.39%
Marvel Super Heroes Beginner Box leads TCGPlayer decliners, accelerating from last week’s -8.72%. Volume grew from 38 to 62 units while the price dropped. That’s sellers competing each other down on a 263-unit shelf that barely budged. Demand held. The clearing price came down as sellers competed.
- Price
- $22.58-8.08%
- Units
- 4226 orders
- Sell-through
- 0.0542
- Avg qty
- 774.3+7.80%
- Sellers
- 62.0+6.90%
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Prerelease Pack dropped on TCGPlayer on 42 units, up from 26. Same dynamic as the Marvel Beginner Box: more volume, lower price, heavy shelf at 774 avg qty. A 0.0542 sell-through on that kind of inventory is a product waiting for demand to show up at any price.
- Price
- $69.69-7.73%
- Units
- 173170 orders
- Sell-through
- 1.4314
- Avg qty
- 120.9+7.45%
- Sellers
- 46.5+48.25%
The Hobbit Scene Box Treasures of Smaug continued its slide on TCGPlayer for a fourth straight week. The seller crowd grew 48% (31 to 46) while supply only grew 7%. The competition is expanding faster than inventory, and that gap drives the undercutting. Still turning over 1.43x its shelf, so demand isn’t the issue. Unlike its set-mate Crack the Plates, this box hasn’t hit a floor yet.
- Price
- $71.93-6.90%
- Units
- 189169 orders
- Sell-through
- 0.6215
- Avg qty
- 304.1+11.88%
- Sellers
- 52.6+32.97%
The Hobbit Bundle kept normalizing on TCGPlayer. Sellers grew 33%, supply grew 12%, units dropped from 331 to 189. More sellers, lower prices, less volume as the initial rush fades. A 0.6215 sell-through means the shelf is still turning over, just at a lower clearing price.
- Price
- $27.35-6.41%
- Units
- 5941 orders
- Sell-through
- 0.0710
- Avg qty
- 831.6-2.90%
- Sellers
- 51.1+0.85%
Marvel Super Heroes Prerelease Pack drifted lower on TCGPlayer on 59 units against an 832-unit shelf. A 0.0710 sell-through. Same slow grind as last week, same heavy shelf.
- Price
- $233.98-6.23%
- Units
- 2825 orders
- Sell-through
- 0.5277
- Avg qty
- 53.1+93.77%
- Sellers
- 7.7+20.12%
The Hobbit Gift Bundle gave back ground on TCGPlayer as supply nearly doubled: avg qty 27.4 to 53.1. Last week this was the thinnest shelf in the set, climbing on scarcity with only six sellers. This week early allocation expanded and the scarcity premium started unwinding. The official Sep 4 release is 11 days away, and the price should keep adjusting as more inventory arrives.
On Manapool, FINAL FANTASY Play Booster Pack (Manapool) fell $7.57 -> $5.97 (-21.19%) on 32 units. The Hobbit Scene Box Treasures of Smaug (Manapool) fell $78.56 -> $64.59 (-17.79%) on 10 units as supply nearly doubled; the same decline on TCGPlayer is hitting harder here. Bloomburrow Play Booster Pack (Manapool) fell $6.20 -> $5.48 (-11.61%) on 17 units. The Hobbit Prerelease Pack (Manapool) fell $48.72 -> $43.75 (-10.19%) on 11 units. Marvel Super Heroes Collector Booster Pack (Manapool) fell $42.60 -> $39.33 (-7.68%) on 6 units.
Supply / Velocity Read-Through
The Hobbit Collector Booster Display is the story of the week. It gained while supply grew 28% and the seller pool grew 62%. Sell-through 2.5144, still clearing 2.5x its shelf in week two. Last week the report asked whether the $853.50 prerelease price would survive the open market. It gave back 5% to $811 and held. This week it gained 2.6% on an even deeper seller pool. The demand is real. Scarcity may still be helping the price, but it can’t explain away a 28% supply increase, 62% more sellers, and the box still moving higher.
The Hobbit Play Booster Display absorbed a supply wave that doubled the seller pool (37.7 to 78.1) and pushed avg qty from 317 to 480, and held flat at $188. 760 units, 639 orders, sell-through 1.5832. The market absorbed a substantial release-week supply increase without the price breaking. But some distributors are still waiting on delayed Play Booster inventory, with full fulfillment expected by early September. Restock flag fires; that’s the expected post-release supply build, and another wave is coming. The Hobbit Draft Night saw similar supply growth (+66.0%, sellers +75.8%) at a 0.6225 sell-through; also flagged for restock.
The Hobbit Scene Box Crack the Plates reversed its three-week decline. Supply cratered 59% (187.1 to 76.0) and sellers dropped 12% (32 to 28). Last week’s takeaway said the box was $7 from MSRP and predicted sellers would leave when the margin disappeared. That’s what happened. The margin compressed, sellers left, and the price bounced on the reduced supply. Sell-through 2.0645, the demand never went away. The Hobbit Scene Box Treasures of Smaug didn’t follow the same reversal. Its sellers grew 48% while supply only grew 7%, and the decline continued at -7.7%. Crack the Plates hit MSRP and bounced; Treasures of Smaug hasn’t found its floor.
Reality Fracture Collector Booster Display preorder drain accelerated: supply fell 49% (88.0 to 45.3), sellers dropped 35% (16.8 to 10.9), sell-through 1.7647. Five weeks to the October 2 release and the preorder book is thinning fast. The Play Booster Display jumped 12.4% to $143.45.
Secrets of Strixhaven Commander Deck Silverquill Influence surged: units doubled from 29 to 63, supply dropped 35% (153.2 to 100.1), sell-through 0.6296. Secrets of Strixhaven Commander Deck Case did the same, units quadrupled from 22 to 96, supply dropped 31% (197.5 to 136.6), sell-through 0.7028. Strixhaven Commander’s the best underlying value play in the current lineup, $214 in singles value at $49.99 MSRP on Silverquill.
The Lost Caverns of Ixalan Commander Deck Explorers of the Deep keeps draining: supply dropped 44% (51.9 to 28.9), sellers dropped 33% (29.9 to 20.1), sell-through 1.1763. No external catalyst. A non-hype product being absorbed steadily.
Star Trek Collector Booster Display preorder supply keeps thinning: avg qty 86.9 to 61.2 (-29.56%), sellers 11.7 to 9.3, sell-through 0.5391. The price is flat at $699. Last week the watch item said Star Trek “flattened”; this week the Collector Booster Display resumed its drain. Nov 13 release, 11 weeks out.
Marvel Super Heroes Collector Booster Display drain decelerated sharply: supply fell only 2.1% this week versus 43.6% last week, and the price pulled back slightly to $468.89. The week-over-week drain moderated. I called it “on a clock” last week, and the clock’s still running, but the pace slowed.
Supply restocks hit several Commander products: Tarkir Dragonstorm Commander Deck Temur Roar (+36.9%, 48.3 to 66.2), Bloomburrow Commander Deck Display (+34.4%, 109.4 to 147.0), The Lord of the Rings Commander Deck Hosts of Mordor (+30.6%, 96.3 to 125.8). Standard refills, no significant price movement.
The Hobbit Prerelease Pack (featured last week, not an anomaly this week) stabilized at $46.85 (+5.92%) as the release-week supply flood drained (avg qty 641.9 to 495.6, sell-through 0.4399). Secret of Strixhaven Collector Booster Pack continued thinning (supply -16.22%, 169.6 to 142.1, 28 units), same persistent direction.
On Manapool, The Hobbit Play Booster Display (Manapool) supply grew 39.4% (174.3 to 243.0) at $183.53, 79 units. Modern Horizons 3 Play Booster Display (Manapool) supply thinned 26.1% (54.1 to 40.0) at $275.85, 13 units.
| Product | Sell-Through | Avg Qty | Supply Δ | Sellers Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Hobbit Coll Booster Display | 2.5144 | 118.1 | +27.77% | +61.89% |
| The Hobbit Collector Booster Ome… | 2.1753 | 112.2 | +2.91% | +30.26% |
| The Hobbit Scene Box Crack the P… | 2.0645 | 76.0 | -59.35% | -12.13% |
| Reality Fracture Coll Booster Di… | 1.7647 | 45.3 | -48.51% | -35.13% |
| The Hobbit Play Booster Display | 1.5832 | 480.0 | +51.43% | +107.24% |
| The Hobbit Scene Box Treasures o… | 1.4314 | 120.9 | +7.45% | +48.25% |
| The Hobbit Collector Booster Pack | 1.2220 | 305.2 | +25.12% | +80.66% |
| The Lost Caverns of Ixalan Cmdr … | 1.1763 | 28.9 | -44.31% | -32.54% |
Tightest inventory on TCGPlayer: The Hobbit Collector Booster Display (sell-through 2.5144 at avg qty 118.1, supply still growing but demand outpacing it), The Hobbit Collector Booster Omega Pack (2.1753 at 112.2, data flags apply), The Hobbit Scene Box Crack the Plates (2.0645 at 76.0, supply cratered 59%), Reality Fracture Collector Booster Display (1.7647 at 45.3, preorder drain accelerating), The Hobbit Play Booster Display (1.5832 at 480.0, absorbed the entire supply wave), The Hobbit Scene Box Treasures of Smaug (1.4314 at 120.9), The Hobbit Collector Booster Pack (1.2220 at 305.2, stabilizing post-release), The Lost Caverns of Ixalan Commander Deck Explorers of the Deep (1.1763 at 28.9, non-hype product draining steadily).
Heaviest inventory on TCGPlayer: Marvel Super Heroes Play Booster Display remains above 1,000 avg qty, followed by Marvel Super Heroes Prerelease Pack (831.6), Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Prerelease Pack (774.3, up from 718.2), Marvel Super Heroes Bundle, Marvels Spider Man Play Booster Display (509.4), Lorwyn Eclipsed Play Booster Display (493.8), Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Play Booster Display (492.4), Avatar The Last Airbender Play Booster Display (435.7). The UB franchise sets continue carrying the heaviest shelves.
Coverage ran 100.0% across 570 located sellers, up from 551 last week, 19 new entrants. Washington held the top spot at 10.5% of located supply (10,638 units), California second at 7.8% (7,908), Florida rose to 6.9% (6,952), Arizona 6.1% (6,150), New York 4.9% (4,997), Texas 4.8% (4,801), Ohio 4.6% (4,638), Quebec 4.1% (4,116), Indiana 4.0% (4,015), Oregon 3.7% (3,761). Top cities: Seattle 7,013, Quebec 3,882, Tucson 3,354, Liberty IN 2,856, Bayamón PR 2,815.
The Hobbit Play Booster Display and The Hobbit Draft Night carry probable_restock_signal flags, expected post-release supply builds, not organic shelf growth. The Hobbit Collector Booster Omega Pack carries low_coverage_supply and probable_data_artifact flags; the volume (244 units) is real but the supply figures may not reflect the true shelf size. The sell-through ratio on this product should be read with wider error bars.
Seller note: TCGplayer expanded Safeguard coverage to untracked orders placed August 17 or later. It applies to US sellers with at least 1,000 lifetime orders. Sellers still refund the buyer first and escalate the order, but TCGplayer will credit qualifying missing shipments. Temporary while they work on a better tracking solution, but it meaningfully changes the risk on low-dollar PWE orders.
Opinionated Takeaways
The Premium Answered
The Hobbit Collector Booster Display gained in week two of open-market trading while the seller pool grew 62%. Two weeks running, the open-market answer is that the demand is real. Scarcity may still be helping, but it can’t explain away a growing seller pool and a rising price.
Crack the Plates Proved the Floor
Last week’s report called sellers leaving when margin disappeared. That’s what happened. Compressed margin drove out the sellers the same way it drove out buyers when they were chasing prerelease premiums.
Strixhaven Is Tightening at a Structural Level
The Codex Bundle, Silverquill Commander, and Commander Case all surged this week. Three products across different price points, all compressing at once. The supply numbers say it isn’t a one-week blip.
The Marvel Collector Booster Box Clock Slowed
I called it “on a clock” last week and said the drain rate made the math simple. This week supply barely moved and the price pulled back slightly. The finite-pool story still holds, but the acute phase may have passed, or it’s pausing before the next leg.
What To Watch Next Week
Hobbit Gift Bundle Sep 4 release. Supply already doubled this week as early allocation arrived. The official launch should push more inventory onto the shelf. The question is whether demand absorbs the build or whether the $234 price keeps falling toward MSRP ($89.99).
Reality Fracture preorder depth into spoiler season. Spoiler season begins Sep 8. The Collector Booster Display is at 1.76x sell-through with half the listed TCGPlayer preorder inventory gone, through some combination of sales and sellers pulling listings. Whether the book builds further or plateaus now that the MC Amsterdam hype is priced in.
Strixhaven sealed supply confirmation. The Commander and Codex Bundle both had supply drops above 25% this week. If the tightening is structural, next week should confirm it. If it was a one-week spike, supply should stabilize.
— The MTGsold Team
Calculation Notes & Disclaimers
- Metrics are based on MTGsold internal sales/listing snapshots for the report window only.
avg qty= average of daily inventory (most complete scrape per day, by seller coverage), not a sum of all intraday listings.sell-through=units sold this week / avg qty this week; values above 1 indicate inventory turned over multiple times.- Percentage changes are week-over-week versus the prior-week baseline; very small baselines can exaggerate % moves.
- Listings are marketplace snapshots and may include relists, temporary removals, and scrape gaps, so flagged low-confidence moves should be treated cautiously.
- Marketplace sections are segmented to avoid cross-stream blending of metrics.