Weekly Report (Jul 20 - Jul 26, 2026)
Weekly Market Pulse
TCGPlayer moved $1,197,214.93 across 7,143 units and 5,907 orders over 91 products this week, revenue down 11.94% and units down 9.27% against last week’s 7,873 units and $1,359,520.99. Before reading that as the market cooling, look at what it’s being measured against. Last week held the MagicCon Amsterdam debut of The Hobbit on July 18 and Pro Tour Marvel Super Heroes on July 17 to 19. Nothing of that size happened this week, and the daily line shows it. There was no event day at all: a peak of 1,393 units and $219,569.95 on July 23, a trough of 1,033 units and $153,902.48 on July 25, and July 26 back up to 1,175 units and $197,631.25. Flat and ordinary all the way through.
The weird part is where the decline didn’t happen. The Hobbit Play Booster Display did $247,827.52 on 1,375 units and The Hobbit Collector Booster Display did $230,365.57 on 276 units, roughly $478K between them and about 40% of the cohort, and both went up on price. The set doesn’t release until August 14. Last week those same two displays did around $539K out of a larger $1,396,928.66 pull, so the preorder money roughly held its level while the total shrank around it. What came off was the in-hand market. Marvel Super Heroes Collector Booster Display did $50,923.36 on 110 units and Marvel Super Heroes Play Booster Display $36,646.25 on 312. For the calendar: Hasbro reported Q2 on July 21 and said Magic passed $500 million in quarterly revenue for the first time in its history, led by Marvel Super Heroes, which set records for Day-1 and Month-1 revenue and was the fastest set to reach $300 million. On Manapool, $77,753.70 across 478 units and 336 orders over 45 products.
| Product | Revenue | Units | VWAP | WoW |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Hobbit Play Booster Display | $247,827.52 | 1375 | $180.24 | +7.51% |
| The Hobbit Coll Booster Display | $230,365.57 | 276 | $834.66 | +4.12% |
| Marvel Super Heroes Coll Booster… | $50,923.36 | 110 | $462.94 | -0.73% |
| Marvel Super Heroes Play Booster… | $36,646.25 | 312 | $117.46 | +3.23% |
| The Hobbit Gift Bundle | $31,042.56 | 171 | $181.54 | -0.80% |
| Marvels Spider Man Coll Booster … | $27,938.56 | 75 | $372.51 | +1.71% |
| FF Play Booster Display | $26,391.45 | 114 | $231.50 | +2.83% |
| The Hobbit Draft Night | $24,841.27 | 179 | $138.78 | -5.95% |
| Reality Fracture Coll Booster Di… | $23,338.73 | 49 | $476.30 | -0.31% |
| The Hobbit Scene Box Treasures o… | $22,453.65 | 222 | $101.14 | +34.82% |
Top Gainers
- Price
- $101.14+34.82%
- Units
- 222213 orders
- Sell-through
- 1.8420
- Avg qty
- 120.5-14.98%
- Sellers
- 8.6-47.98%
The Hobbit Scene Box Treasures of Smaug leads TCGPlayer gainers, up 34.82% to a $101.14 average. Now look at the unit count. 222 this week, and it was 222 last week as well, exactly the same, which means the price moved 34.82% without one additional box being bought. Over the same seven days the seller pool was cut in half, 16.5 -> 8.6 (-47.98%).
My first read was that the seller exodus did it. Half the sellers leave, the cheapest listings go with them, and the asks that remain set a higher price. That read has a control case sitting right next to it, and it fails. The Hobbit Scene Box Crack the Plates lost even more of its seller pool over the same seven days, 21.1 -> 12.0 (-43.00%), and its price did nothing at all: $68.73 -> $69.30 (+0.83%) on avg qty 178.9 -> 178.0 (-0.49%). Two Scene Boxes, same set, same week, same shape of seller withdrawal, and only one of them repriced.
The difference between them is what’s inside. Our read is that Smaug the Impenetrable is a genuinely strong card and preorder buyers are paying for the box to get at it. I went looking for a news event and there isn’t one: the Scene Box reveal was July 18, two days before this week even began, and the Gleaming Gold Smaug, at roughly 500 copies, is a Collector Booster exclusive and is explicitly not serialized. So there’s no announcement to point at. There’s a card, and a control case that says the card is doing the work.
- Price
- $51.81+13.88%
- Units
- 2828 orders
- Sell-through
- 0.4170
- Avg qty
- 67.1-0.49%
- Sellers
- 36.8-12.71%
Tarkir Dragonstorm Commander Deck Abzan Armor gained on TCGPlayer, and it did it on a shelf that never moved. Twenty-eight units isn’t much of a base for a 13.88% move, so I’d take the direction and ignore the size. I looked for a reprint, a restock, or a Commander-format event behind the Tarkir Dragonstorm precons this week, and found nothing dated.
- Price
- $263.25+13.72%
- Units
- 2310 orders
- Sell-through
- 0.2701
- Avg qty
- 85.1-10.06%
- Sellers
- 29.7-5.67%
Tarkir Dragonstorm Commander Deck Case rose on TCGPlayer, and the number to hold onto is the order count: 10. Ten orders carried a 13.72% move on a $263 product, which is the kind of figure that looks like a trend and is really a handful of people buying cases. Low confidence on the magnitude.
- Price
- $280.82+11.80%
- Units
- 2221 orders
- Sell-through
- 0.7617
- Avg qty
- 28.9-23.13%
- Sellers
- 19.1-16.56%
Phyrexia All Will Be One Set Booster Display climbed on TCGPlayer. This is a 2023 product, and what drives it’s a fact about the print run instead of anything in the news. Phyrexia released in February 2023 with Set Boosters, and Wizards then discontinued Set Boosters and Draft Boosters entirely in favour of Play Boosters starting with Murders at Karlov Manor in 2024. There’s no future in which another Set Booster Display gets printed. The pool can only go down. A 23.13% supply drain on a product that can never be restocked is the cleanest supply story on the board this week. It’s also happening on 22 units, which is the caveat you should carry with it.
- Price
- $35.40+11.58%
- Units
- 4644 orders
- Sell-through
- 0.1594
- Avg qty
- 288.5-12.82%
- Sellers
- 74.4-9.79%
Lorwyn Eclipsed Commander Deck Dance of the Elements rose on TCGPlayer, but the sell-through is the number that matters here: 0.1594 against a shelf of 288.5 listings means the pile is barely being touched. Lorwyn Eclipsed released January 23, 2026, so this is a six-month-old precon working through a large overhang. A price tick on a shelf that deep isn’t a scarcity signal.
- Price
- $135.79+10.62%
- Units
- 4946 orders
- Sell-through
- 0.1135
- Avg qty
- 431.8-0.31%
- Sellers
- 94.3-0.60%
Avatar The Last Airbender Play Booster Display gained 10.62% on TCGPlayer while units halved from 97 to 49 and the shelf didn’t move at all. So fewer people bought it, at a higher average price, out of a pile of 431.8 listings that stayed exactly where it was. That’s what a thin tape looks like. Nothing tightened. Avatar released November 21, 2025 and I found nothing dated in this window that would move it.
On Manapool, the same Smaug trade ran harder and on far fewer units. The Hobbit Scene Box Treasures of Smaug (Manapool) went $70.68 -> $104.90 (+48.42%) on 15 units across 15 orders as its listings halved, avg qty 15.8 -> 8.4 (-46.77%), sell-through 1.7797. Marvel Super Heroes Commander Deck Avengers Assemble (Manapool) added $55.00 -> $64.88 (+17.97%) on 5 units, Magic The Gathering Foundations Jumpstart Booster Pack (Manapool) $6.18 -> $7.27 (+17.64%) on 6 units across a single order, and The Lord of the Rings Tales of Middle earth Commander Deck Riders of Rohan (Manapool) $60.63 -> $71.22 (+17.47%) on 7 units. The Hobbit Draft Night (Manapool) rose $141.98 -> $159.21 (+12.14%) on 3 units, but it fired a supply flag and is covered below. The line I keep coming back to is The Hobbit Collector Booster Display (Manapool), $737.16 -> $797.02 (+8.12%) on 26 units at a 1.6396 sell-through while listings drained avg qty 23.8 -> 15.9 (-33.47%), which is the same direction the TCGPlayer collector tier ran. Underneath all of it the Manapool Hobbit shelf thinned almost everywhere: The Hobbit Gift Bundle (Manapool) avg qty 16.2 -> 11.0 (-31.96%), The Hobbit Bundle (Manapool) 39.5 -> 27.1 (-31.28%), The Hobbit Play Booster Display (Manapool) 116.3 -> 86.3 (-25.83%), with The Hobbit Collector Booster Pack (Manapool) the lone exception at 69.2 -> 95.0 (+37.35%). Non-Hobbit listings drained too: Edge of Eternities Collector Booster Sample Pack (Manapool) 22.0 -> 3.4 (-84.42%), The Lord of the Rings Tales of Middle earth Commander Deck Food and Fellowship (Manapool) 13.3 -> 7.9 (-41.07%), Edge of Eternities Commander Deck World Shaper (Manapool) 20.8 -> 14.0 (-32.80%), Bloomburrow Play Booster Display (Manapool) 80.0 -> 59.1 (-26.07%), and Bloomburrow Commander Deck Animated Army (Manapool) 13.7 -> 10.1 (-25.78%). Every count in this paragraph sits between 3 and 26 units. Direction only.
Top Decliners
- Price
- $79.12-16.63%
- Units
- 267212 orders
- Sell-through
- 0.5685
- Avg qty
- 469.7+5.54%
- Sellers
- 77.5+64.39%
Marvel Super Heroes Gift Bundle leads TCGPlayer decliners, down 16.63% on 267 units, more than double last week’s 126. Before the analysis, a correction. Last week I called this product’s -24.35% a restock, and a big one. That was wrong, and the evidence was public the whole time. Wizards published twice, in the Marvel Super Heroes buyer’s guide and in a WPN retailer article, that Gift Bundles release on July 17, 2026, three weeks after the rest of the set. This week is the first full week the SKU has existed on a shelf. What I read as a restock was a staggered launch.
The corrected version is a plainer story and a more useful one. Supply is up only slightly, but the seller pool has gone 12.3 to 47.1 to 77.5 across three weeks, up 64.39% in this one alone, as more stores received their allocation and listed it. Price has come down about 37% from $125.45 over those two weeks while unit sales doubled, and sell-through is 0.5685, the second-highest of any Marvel SKU this week. A product that sells more every week as its price falls isn’t losing demand. It’s finding out what it’s worth now that everybody who preordered one has it.
- Price
- $152.86-8.20%
- Units
- 8971 orders
- Sell-through
- 0.4539
- Avg qty
- 196.1+207.31%
- Sellers
- 30.9+74.80%
Marvel Super Heroes Jumpstart Booster Display fell on TCGPlayer, and last week I asked whether the Jumpstart restock would ever reach TCGPlayer. It reached TCGPlayer. Listings tripled in seven days, which fires a probable_restock_signal flag, and sell-through collapsed from last week’s 3.1813 to 0.4539. The restock is confirmed. A retailer product page carries the wave-2 date as July 31, which falls after this window closed, so what we’re watching is inventory landing on the shelf ahead of that date.
Remember how this SKU got expensive in the first place. Wizards announced on June 4 that Bundles, Commander decks, Jumpstart Boosters, and Welcome Decks were delayed in North America, while Play Boosters, Collector Boosters, and Prerelease Packs weren’t. A shortage created by a shipping delay ends when the shipping delay ends. This is that ending, and the price came off 8.20% in the first week of it.
- Price
- $57.88-7.56%
- Units
- 6756 orders
- Sell-through
- 0.1026
- Avg qty
- 652.9+0.46%
- Sellers
- 50.6-3.89%
Marvel Super Heroes Bundle declined on TCGPlayer against a shelf that won’t move. Sixty-seven units against 652.9 listings is a shelf being nibbled at. There’s no event here and nothing to build a story on. This is the plainest oversupply on the Marvel board, and the price is doing what oversupply makes prices do.
- Price
- $138.78-5.95%
- Units
- 179163 orders
- Sell-through
- 1.1460
- Avg qty
- 156.2-4.98%
- Sellers
- 17.5-28.03%
The Hobbit Draft Night fell on TCGPlayer, and it’s the one Hobbit product that moved against the rest of its set. Units more than doubled, from 74 to 179, while the price came down and the seller count dropped 28.03%. That’s the ordinary reading of a market: sellers took lower asks and buyers took them up on it. Of every Hobbit SKU on the board, this is the only one where preorder price went the opposite way from the displays.
- Price
- $280.45-5.59%
- Units
- 7149 orders
- Sell-through
- 0.7284
- Avg qty
- 97.5-0.29%
- Sellers
- 61.3+9.81%
Mystery Booster 2 Booster Display fell on TCGPlayer with the shelf completely flat, so nothing on the supply side accounts for it. What did happen is that this product got a successor. Mystery Booster: Commander Edition was announced at MagicCon Amsterdam on July 17: 20-card packs with Commander Draft support, 59 mechanically new cards, and a new Rulebreaker mechanic, first playable at Gen Con on July 30. One outlet describes it flatly as replacing the outgoing Mystery Booster 2.
I want to be careful with that. The announcement lands three days before the week the price fell, which is adjacency and not proof, and the sources don’t even agree on when the successor reaches paper. One says October 2026, another says February 2027, so I’m not going to print a release date I can’t verify. What I’ll say is that a sealed product whose replacement was just announced, falling 5.59% the following week with no supply change at all, is a coincidence worth writing down and checking again next month.
- Price
- $46.82-3.46%
- Units
- 8383 orders
- Sell-through
- 0.3377
- Avg qty
- 245.8+14.04%
- Sellers
- 55.8+8.16%
Marvel Super Heroes Commander Deck Wakanda Forever eased on TCGPlayer, and on its own that’s close to a rounding error. It earns a place on this list because it’s one of four regular Marvel Commander decks that all gained supply this week while all three Collectors Editions lost it, and that split is the Marvel story this week. It’s in the supply section below.
On Manapool the declines are thin enough that I’m reporting them as direction and nothing more. Lorwyn Eclipsed Play Booster Pack (Manapool) fell $5.01 -> $4.46 (-10.91%) on 17 units across 2 orders. Secrets of Strixhaven Commander Deck Prismari Artistry (Manapool) eased $41.66 -> $37.17 (-10.76%) on 11 units across 3 orders with listings avg qty 61.8 -> 58.9 (-4.81%). Universes Beyond The Lord of the Rings Tales of Middle earth Set Booster Pack (Manapool) slipped $18.79 -> $17.00 (-9.53%) on 3 units in a single order, and Modern Horizons 3 Play Booster Pack (Manapool) $9.60 -> $8.69 (-9.48%) on 4 units in a single order while its listings drained avg qty 456.8 -> 381.6 (-16.47%). The one that stands out is Magic The Gathering Foundations Play Booster Display (Manapool), down $159.14 -> $147.98 (-7.01%) on 6 units with listings avg qty 108.0 -> 94.4 (-12.57%), because the same product went the other way on TCGPlayer over the same seven days, up 2.69%. Two venues, one product, opposite signs. That’s the clearest reminder I can give you for why we never blend the two into one number.
Supply / Velocity Read-Through
The tight end of the TCGPlayer board is still almost entirely The Hobbit, and it’s still preorder velocity, because nobody can open any of it until August 14. What changed this week is that the preorder prices went up instead of down, which is the reverse of what I described last week. The Hobbit Play Booster Display is the clearest case. Units were flat, 1,375 against 1,380, but sellers left, avg sellers 27.2 -> 21.5 (-20.93%), listings drained avg qty 355.8 -> 305.8 (-14.06%), and the price went $167.64 -> $180.24 (+7.51%) at a 4.4971 sell-through. Last week I wrote that preorder sellers were undercutting each other into release. They stopped.
What happened in between was spoiler season. Wizards ran previews on every single day of this window on its published schedule, July 20 through July 26, closing with a San Diego Comic-Con panel on the 26th, with the full card gallery set for July 31. The box toppers were the part with money attached: 19 of 40 revealed by July 24, all Lord of the Rings reprints with new art, one per Play Booster box and one per Collector Booster box, with The One Ring sitting at number 044. A single July 22 batch put roughly $66 of reprints on the table across Minas Morgul Dark Fortress, Anduril Narsil Reforged, Witch-King Bringer of Ruin, Mount Doom, and Flame of Anor. Buyers learned the box was worth more and sellers stopped cutting each other. I can source the reveal schedule; the link from reveals to price is my read, and I can’t prove it.
Marvel did something stranger. Across all 24 Marvel SKUs, total listings went 7,351.0 -> 7,347.5, a change of -0.05%. Nothing at all. Underneath that nothing, Marvel Super Heroes Jumpstart Booster Display ran +207.31%, Marvel Super Heroes Collector Booster Display built avg qty 185.2 -> 268.8 (+45.10%), Marvel Super Heroes Play Booster Display Case drained 75.0 -> 45.9 (-38.86%), and Marvel Super Heroes Play Booster Display worked off 188 listings, 1,050.4 -> 862.3 (-17.90%). Hasbro told investors on July 21 that it had bigger allocations to sell in initially, inventory at quite reasonable levels, and consistent reorders. A product line that flat in aggregate while its individual SKUs swing +207% and -39% is what that sentence looks like at the shelf.
The Commander decks split cleanly by edition, and this is the part I have to revise from last week. All four regular decks gained listings: Marvel Super Heroes Commander Deck Doom Prevails avg qty 144.0 -> 191.8 (+33.20%) with sellers up 18.72%, Marvel Super Heroes Commander Deck The Fantastic Four 224.8 -> 272.8 (+21.35%) with sellers up 26.69%, Wakanda Forever 215.5 -> 245.8 (+14.04%), and Avengers Assemble 157.6 -> 169.4 (+7.45%). All three Collectors Editions went the other way: Avengers Assemble Collectors Edition avg qty 124.1 -> 96.4 (-22.36%), Doom Prevails Collectors Edition 130.7 -> 105.9 (-19.02%), and The Fantastic Four Collectors Edition 121.1 -> 102.7 (-15.16%). The bleeding I described last week stopped exactly there. Those three premium decks fell 16.06%, 18.46%, and 16.31% last week; this week they were $176.67 -> $175.38 (-0.73%), $124.18 -> $121.41 (-2.23%), and $130.77 -> $131.70 (+0.71%). Supply arrived on the regular decks and the premium tier stopped falling the moment its own supply began shrinking. I told readers last week that our sources pointed to a reprint wave at the end of July. No announcement of any kind appeared in this window, and I couldn’t re-source the rumor. The supply moved regardless. I can show you the shape and I can’t tell you the cause.
Away from the headline sets there’s a pattern I can’t explain at all. Older Play Booster Displays keep draining while their prices sit flat or drift up. Duskmourn House of Horror Play Booster Display went avg qty 99.6 -> 69.7 (-30.01%) at a 0.7749 sell-through with price $165.75 -> $167.25 (+0.91%). Magic The Gathering Foundations Play Booster Display went 203.4 -> 143.3 (-29.54%) with price up 2.69%, and Foundations Play Boosters are specifically not out of print, because Wizards said in March 2025 that Foundations Collector Boosters and Bundles wouldn’t be reprinted but Play Boosters and Beginner Boxes would keep getting availability. Tarkir Dragonstorm Play Booster Display went 184.8 -> 131.5 (-28.85%) with price $132.42 -> $141.19 (+6.63%). Three sets, three different years, roughly the same 30% drain, none of them out of print, and nothing in the news. Elsewhere The Hobbit Collector Booster Pack drained avg qty 231.9 -> 167.6 (-27.71%) on units 110 -> 164 at a 0.9783 sell-through, and Bloomburrow Commander Deck Squirreled Away built the other way, 86.2 -> 107.9 (+25.07%) at a 0.3709 sell-through.
| Product | Sell-Through | Avg Qty | Supply Δ | Sellers Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Hobbit Play Booster Display | 4.4971 | 305.8 | -14.06% | -20.93% |
| The Hobbit Scene Box Treasures o… | 1.8420 | 120.5 | -14.98% | -47.98% |
| The Hobbit Gift Bundle | 1.5719 | 108.8 | +6.75% | +5.59% |
| The Hobbit Bundle | 1.4852 | 140.0 | +26.33% | -8.29% |
| The Hobbit Coll Booster Display | 1.2677 | 217.7 | +24.27% | +8.83% |
| The Hobbit Draft Night | 1.1460 | 156.2 | -4.98% | -28.03% |
| The Lost Caverns of Ixalan Cmdr … | 1.0187 | 38.3 | -4.85% | -2.36% |
Tightest inventory on TCGPlayer: The Hobbit Play Booster Display (sell-through 4.4971 at avg qty 305.8, supply down 14.06%), The Hobbit Scene Box Treasures of Smaug (1.8420 at avg qty 120.5, down 14.98%), The Hobbit Gift Bundle (1.5719 at avg qty 108.8, up 6.75%), The Hobbit Bundle (1.4852 at avg qty 140.0, up 26.33%), The Hobbit Collector Booster Display (1.2677 at avg qty 217.7, up 24.27%), and The Hobbit Draft Night (1.1460 at avg qty 156.2, down 4.98%). All six of the tightest products in the dataset come from a set that hasn’t been released, so read those sell-throughs measure preorder demand, not a supply squeeze. The only product outside The Hobbit turning over above 1.0 is The Lost Caverns of Ixalan Commander Deck Veloci Ramp Tor at 1.0187 on avg qty 38.3, a 2023 precon now on this list three weeks running.
Heaviest inventory on TCGPlayer: Marvel Super Heroes Play Booster Display (average listings 862.3, down 17.90%, sell-through 0.3618), Marvel Super Heroes Prerelease Pack (712.5, up 9.26%, 0.1081), Marvel Super Heroes Bundle (652.9, up 0.46%, 0.1026), Marvels Spider Man Play Booster Display (515.6, down 7.92%, 0.1028), and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Play Booster Display (501.9, down 6.82%, 0.1634). The Marvel play and prerelease overhang is still the biggest pile in the dataset, though the Play Display did work 188 listings off it this week at the best sell-through of the group.
Coverage was complete this week, 100% across 551 located sellers. Washington ran the seller map again at 11.2% of located supply, 13,231 units, and Seattle alone accounted for 9,190 of them, more than any entire state outside the top two. California followed at 8.2% (9,712 units), Idaho at 7.5% (8,783), New York at 7.4% (8,742), Florida at 7.1% (8,384), Kentucky at 4.9% (5,745), Texas at 4.1% (4,857), and Arizona at 3.6% (4,259). After Seattle, the busiest cities were South Williamson, Kentucky at 4,081 units, Liberty, Indiana at 3,114, Bayamon, Puerto Rico at 3,045, Miami at 2,909, and Tucson at 2,740.
A few moves need a caution label. Marvel Super Heroes Jumpstart Booster Display carries a probable_restock_signal flag on supply up 207.31% and sellers up 74.80% in one week. In this case the flag is right and the restock is confirmed, so read the -8.20% as inventory arriving rather than demand leaving. Tarkir Dragonstorm Commander Deck Sultai Arisen carries the same flag on supply up 83.55% and sellers up 67.53%, but no reprint or restock turned up in any source I checked, so there the flag is describing a shape with no confirmed event under it, and should be treated as low confidence. The Hobbit Draft Night (Manapool) carries a baseline_small_supply flag on listings of avg qty 6.5 -> 8.9, which makes its +12.14% on 3 units unreliable as a magnitude. On the better side, nothing carried probable_data_artifact or low_coverage_supply this week, so last week’s unreliable Manapool Hobbit supply figures have cleared. And the standing caveat holds: most Manapool moves this week rest on between 1 and 26 units, so treat every Manapool percentage as direction rather than size.
Opinionated Takeaways
The Gift Bundle Was Never a Restock
A restock and a staggered launch look identical in supply data. Both put more sellers on the board, push the price down, and lift unit counts. Nothing in our dataset separates them. What separated them here was a release date on a website, and it was published before I wrote last week’s read. That’s the failure mode of a supply-first method, and I’d rather name it than fix it in silence.
The Marvel Commander Decks Split in Half and Nobody Said Why
Supply moved in two opposite directions at once, along the exact line that separates the surge-foil decks from the normal ones, and the premium bleed stopped the moment its own supply began shrinking. A split that clean usually has a shipment behind it. This one has no announcement anywhere I could find, and the rumor I passed along last week wouldn’t re-source. So the shape is solid and the cause is missing, and I’d rather leave that hole visible than fill it with a plausible story.
The Preorder Book Went Up While Everything Real Went Down
Everything you can actually open is what cooled this week, and the one thing nobody can open until August 14 is what rose. A preorder book climbing on flat units while the in-hand market softens is a market where the confident money and the spending money are sitting in different places. That gap is the number I’d track from here, not the headline revenue. August 14 reconciles the two, and the July 31 card gallery is the last information event before it.
Three Old Booster Boxes Lost a Third of Their Shelf
Phyrexia is the one product in this family whose drain has an explanation, and it’s a boring one: that format was discontinued in 2024 and can never be printed again. Duskmourn, Foundations, and Tarkir Dragonstorm have no such excuse and aren’t out of print. Three unrelated sets shedding roughly the same third of their listings in the same seven days, with prices holding, is either a pattern or a coincidence that stops being one if it repeats. I have no theory. It’s the thing I’d most like to explain and currently can’t.
What To Watch Next Week
Whether The Hobbit’s preorder prices survive the full card gallery on July 31. The Play Display reversed to +7.51% and the Collector Display went to $834.66 during a week of daily previews, which is a market repricing on new information. The gallery is when the new information runs out. Preorder books tend to move once more when there’s nothing left to reveal, and again when product is physically in hand, so the stretch from July 31 into the August 7 to 13 prerelease window is where I’d expect the next real move. If prices hold through the gallery, the reveals were doing more than generating noise.
Whether Treasures of Smaug holds $101.14. This is the cleanest test on the board. Our read is that Smaug the Impenetrable is carrying the box, and the control case supports it, since Crack the Plates lost more of its sellers over the same week and didn’t move at all. But the move rests on 222 units that didn’t grow and a seller pool that halved, which is a thin foundation for 34.82%. If it holds through the gallery, the card explanation is right and the seller withdrawal was incidental. If it gives most of it back, then eight sellers were setting a price, and we should say so plainly when it happens.
Where Marvel Jumpstart settles, and whether the Collectors Editions are next. The price fell 8.20% on the listing surge alone, and the retailer wave-2 date of July 31 falls after this window closed, so more of it’s still coming. The more interesting question sits right next to it. The three Commander Collectors Editions drained 15% to 22% of their listings this week and stopped falling in price. If a wave arrives for those the way it arrived for Jumpstart, we find out quickly whether the premium tier was holding on demand or on scarcity. That’s the same test that failed to resolve last week, and this time it should show up in the supply line whether or not anybody announces anything.
— The MTGsold Team
Calculation Notes & Disclaimers
- Metrics are based on MTGsold internal sales/listing snapshots for the report window only.
avg qty= average of daily inventory (most complete scrape per day, by seller coverage), not a sum of all intraday listings.sell-through=units sold this week / avg qty this week; values above 1 indicate inventory turned over multiple times.- Percentage changes are week-over-week versus the prior-week baseline; very small baselines can exaggerate % moves.
- Listings are marketplace snapshots and may include relists, temporary removals, and scrape gaps, so flagged low-confidence moves should be treated cautiously.
- Marketplace sections are segmented to avoid cross-stream blending of metrics.