Weekly Report (Oct 5–11, 2026)
Weekly Market Pulse
- Revenue
- $977,784▾ from $1.40M
- Units Sold
- 7,064▾ from 10,612
- Sellers
- 578
- WoW Revenue
- -30.2%
Reality Fracture week two still took 46.2% of TCGPlayer revenue, and the week came in under every September week that had no release in it. TCGPlayer did $977,783.80 across 7,064 units and 5,904 orders over 76 products, revenue -30.25% from the revised $1,401,835.73 and units -33.43% from 10,612. Sep 7-13 did $1,146,941 on Hobbit and LTR preorders, Sep 14-20 did $1,295,865, Sep 21-27 did $1,231,403, and this is the lightest week since Aug 31-Sep 6’s $851K. Daily units ran 1,107 to 1,365 with no spike anywhere in the seven days. Release week pulled Hobbit and LTR volume forward and nothing refilled it, so the comedown landed below the run-up, with no release and no catalyst until Hasbro on the 20th.
Reality Fracture carried what there was: $451,540.72 across 3,097 units over nine products, down from 60.8% on $822,737. The Reality Fracture Collector Booster Display was $210,529.34 of it on 478 units, the Reality Fracture Play Booster Display $148,690.22 on 1,047, and Reality Fracture Commander Deck Multiverse Reforged $42,806.90 on 757. The Collector Display’s price went $482.76 -> $440.44 (-8.77%) on a shelf that closed Oct 4 at 265 boxes and Oct 11 at 262. That’s a markdown into a lighter week, with the premium over pack-equivalent at 36% from 49%. Its supply tiles say the shelf grew 59.81%; that compares against pre-release days, and the day-level count says flat.
The Hobbit line did $115,993.45 across 509 units, from $148,944 across 754, 11.9% of the cohort, and both displays held price a second week while the volume went to the new set and stayed there.
Manapool did $88,285.74 across 722 units and 429 orders over 44 products, from $117,268 across 762, with Reality Fracture $52,101.65 of it across 425 units. The Reality Fracture Collector Booster Display (Manapool) did 45 units at $442.44 (-7.77%), within two dollars of the TCGPlayer VWAP, with listings 97.1 -> 85.1 (-12.35%). The Reality Fracture Play Booster Display (Manapool) did 126 units at $138.70 (-9.53%) with listings 259.3 -> 310.7 (+19.83%). The one place the venues split is Reality Fracture Commander Deck Multiverse Reforged (Manapool): 164 units, from 108, while the TCGPlayer copy halved.
| Product | Revenue | Units | VWAP | WoW |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reality Fracture Coll Booster Di… | $210,529.34 | 478 | $440.44 | -8.77% |
| Reality Fracture Play Booster Di… | $148,690.22 | 1047 | $142.02 | -5.10% |
| The Hobbit Coll Booster Display | $73,528.30 | 104 | $707.00 | -0.42% |
| Reality Fracture Cmdr Multiverse… | $42,806.90 | 757 | $56.55 | -7.85% |
| UB LOTR Set Booster Box | $40,170.44 | 134 | $299.78 | -1.74% |
| Star Trek Coll Booster Display | $38,359.63 | 58 | $661.37 | -4.80% |
| Universes Beyond Fallout Cmdr Case | $32,854.98 | 118 | $278.43 | -11.06% |
| The Hobbit Play Booster Display | $22,797.71 | 149 | $153.00 | -2.83% |
| Universes Beyond Fallout Mutant … | $16,935.13 | 135 | $125.45 | -8.05% |
| Star Trek Play Booster Display | $16,316.93 | 107 | $152.49 | -0.71% |
Top Gainers
- Price
- $44.16+16.34%
- Units
- 115114 orders
- Sell-through
- 2.6612
- Avg qty
- 43.2-61.04%
- Sellers
- 18.0-5.97%
Foundations Commander Deck Reign of Dragons leads TCGPlayer gainers, and it got there by running out. Units fell 202 -> 115, the shelf lost 61.04%, and the seller count barely moved, so nobody who listed it in launch week has restocked. Price up on falling volume and a shrinking shelf is supply contraction. It’s now 47% over the $29.99 sticker.
- Price
- $45.71+13.81%
- Units
- 130130 orders
- Sell-through
- 3.4340
- Avg qty
- 37.9-74.44%
- Sellers
- 17.3-28.04%
Foundations Commander Deck Calling All Angels had the steepest drain of the five, avg qty 148.1 -> 37.9 (-74.44%), and last week’s seller arrival reversed: the pool grew 50.37% in launch week and a third of it left this week. Sell-through went 1.4989 -> 3.4340 on 130 units, from 222. Fewer sellers, a quarter of the shelf, and the price found $45.71.
- Price
- $40.89+12.63%
- Units
- 8382 orders
- Sell-through
- 1.6561
- Avg qty
- 50.1-62.94%
- Sellers
- 23.2-2.84%
Foundations Commander Deck Wretched Ranks is the same shape on the smallest volume of the four markdown decks: 83 units, from 242, with the shelf down 62.94% and sellers flat. Last week it cleared shelf at a markdown. This week there was less shelf to clear and the ask rose to meet it.
- Price
- $117.52+10.92%
- Units
- 3434 orders
- Sell-through
- 0.5972
- Avg qty
- 56.9-11.75%
- Sellers
- 24.1-10.42%
Bloomburrow Commander Deck Peace Offering gained on TCGPlayer, a fourteen-month-old precon with a thinning shelf and fewer sellers. Volume was 34 units, from 51, so the move is a handful of buyers paying up on less inventory. No catalyst found; the supply side is doing the work.
- Price
- $490.59+9.72%
- Units
- 2822 orders
- Sell-through
- 0.1673
- Avg qty
- 167.4-6.18%
- Sellers
- 68.2-8.32%
Avatar The Last Airbender Collector Booster Display rose on TCGPlayer on 22 orders, with the shelf down 6.18% and sellers down 8.32%. At a 0.1673 sell-through, 22 orders can move a $490 box almost ten percent without anything changing underneath. I’d take the direction and ignore the size. No catalyst found.
- Price
- $57.65+8.99%
- Units
- 178174 orders
- Sell-through
- 4.7406
- Avg qty
- 37.5-11.05%
- Sellers
- 18.5+77.96%
Foundations Commander Deck Tramplesaurus Rex answered last week’s question about whether its 42-listing shelf would refill. It did not. Sellers went 10.4 -> 18.5 and the shelf shrank anyway, to 37.5, which means the new sellers are listing a handful each and selling out. The 4.7406 sell-through is the highest on TCGPlayer this week, up from 4.4061. Three-week path $44.32 -> $52.90 -> $57.65, now 92% over the $29.99 sticker, and the gap to the other four is still wide: Keen Engineering cleared at $28.01.
On Manapool, Reality Fracture Prerelease Pack (Manapool) climbed $33.53 -> $39.03 (+16.39%) on 15 units, from 49, with listings 127.6 -> 173.0 (+35.61%); the TCGPlayer copy rose 2.24% the same week, so the post-event markdown ended on both venues. Duskmourn House of Horror Play Booster Display (Manapool) rose $181.24 -> $203.30 (+12.17%) on 3 units with listings 23.6 -> 34.6 (+46.67%), a thin base. Foundations Commander Deck Wretched Ranks (Manapool) rose $34.48 -> $38.96 (+12.99%) on 5 units with listings flat at 29.7. FINAL FANTASY Play Booster Display (Manapool) rose $239.16 -> $250.00 (+4.53%) on 3 units, from 15. The rest of the Manapool gainer side is listing growth on flat prices and small shelves, no cause claimed: Star Trek Collector Booster Display (Manapool) listings 13.9 -> 21.9 (+57.73%) on 8 units at $649.72 (+2.59%); Lorwyn Eclipsed Play Booster Display (Manapool) 220.9 -> 310.7 (+40.69%) on 7 units at $117.05 (+1.70%); Bloomburrow Play Booster Display (Manapool) 63.1 -> 85.9 (+35.97%) on 7 units at $197.24; FINAL FANTASY Collector Booster Sample Pack (Manapool) 82.6 -> 134.9 (+63.32%) on 21 units at $12.59; Foundations Commander Deck Tramplesaurus Rex (Manapool) 15.7 -> 21.3 (+35.45%) on 8 units at $47.33 (+2.95%); Foundations Commander Deck Reign of Dragons (Manapool) 30.7 -> 39.1 (+27.44%) on 3 units at $36.92; and loose Reality Fracture Play Booster (Manapool) listings 1,707.6 -> 2,207.1 (+29.26%) on 9 units at $5.55.
Top Decliners
- Price
- $183.00-23.78%
- Units
- 6259 orders
- Sell-through
- 0.4180
- Avg qty
- 148.3+68.49%
- Sellers
- 14.1+50.76%
Reality Fracture Secret Lair Bundle leads TCGPlayer decliners, and the preorder premium broke 13 days before it ships. Last week I said the drain had stopped and the cheap copies had cleared. On Oct 6 one new seller listed 62 units at $173.91, the close count went 91 -> 182 listings in a day, and the largest incumbent cut $241.00 -> $178.30 the same week. The sellers tile says +50.76%; at day level there were 14 sellers on Oct 4 and 14 on Oct 11, so one listing did this. Release is Oct 23 and MSRP is $89.99, which leaves $183.00 still 103% over sticker with release stock not yet on the shelf.
- Price
- $64.53-21.63%
- Units
- 118112 orders
- Sell-through
- 0.6994
- Avg qty
- 168.7+5.14%
- Sellers
- 77.1+12.96%
Volume went 25 -> 118 on the Universes Beyond Fallout Scrappy Survivors Commander Deck as the TCGPlayer price dropped, and that volume direction settles what kind of move this is: sellers cut asks and buyers took the size. A demand-side repricing shrinks volume; this one nearly quintupled it. A small Fallout reprint is trickling into the market, and the line’s shelf grew a second straight week.
- Price
- $74.92-14.13%
- Units
- 7675 orders
- Sell-through
- 0.4193
- Avg qty
- 181.3+8.67%
- Sellers
- 82.6+13.88%
A second straight markdown week for the Universes Beyond Fallout Hail Caesar Commander Deck on TCGPlayer, $100.61 -> $87.25 -> $74.92 across three reports, on the same reprint trickle. Last week it was the sixth decliner with product arriving and no explanation. Now there is one, and the shelf grew again while volume rose 52 -> 76. The sell-through is 0.4193, so new supply is outrunning the buyers at this price.
- Price
- $58.41-11.31%
- Units
- 5855 orders
- Sell-through
- 0.1166
- Avg qty
- 497.5+27.21%
- Sellers
- 89.7+17.32%
One seller added 33 units of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Commander Deck Turtle Power at $58.95 under the standing $63 to $70 asks on TCGPlayer, and 58 units cleared at that level, from 25. The shelf is now the heaviest of any precon on TCGPlayer at 497.5 listings, with a 0.1166 sell-through. No reprint or restock news explains the 33 units.
- Price
- $278.43-11.06%
- Units
- 11866 orders
- Sell-through
- 0.5504
- Avg qty
- 214.4+26.49%
- Sellers
- 67.3+28.52%
The Universes Beyond Fallout Commander Deck Case still did $32,854.98 on TCGPlayer while it was being marked down, seventh in the market, on 118 units across 66 orders, from 39 units. Our snapshot has new sellers at $273.69 to $288.60 listing under the standing 79-unit $299.99 listing. The whole Fallout line’s volume roughly tripled, 235 -> 558 units, with Universes Beyond Fallout Mutant Menace Commander Deck down 8.05% to $125.45 on 135 units and Universes Beyond Fallout Science Commander Deck flat at $39.09 on 111. Four of five decks marked down and all five moved more volume: that’s the reprint landing across the line, in cases and in single decks.
- Price
- $35.16-10.93%
- Units
- 8379 orders
- Sell-through
- 0.3291
- Avg qty
- 252.2-0.24%
- Sellers
- 72.1+8.02%
Volume 37 -> 83 on a shelf that didn’t move, 252.8 -> 252.2, makes the Marvel Super Heroes Commander Deck Wakanda Forever drop on TCGPlayer a markdown with buyers behind it. The Marvel line keeps softening deck by deck. The Marvel Super Heroes Jumpstart Booster Display I had in decliners last week rebounded +2.79% to $97.16 on 57 units, from 85, with its shelf down 19.05%, so that markdown found buyers and thinned the shelf. WPN put the next Marvel set on the calendar on Oct 9: Marvel: Darkhold Destiny, April 9, 2027, with four Commander decks plus four Collector’s Edition Commander decks, two Scene Boxes, a Bundle, an Arcanum Bundle, and Draft Night. Eight more Marvel Commander decks are coming into a line where the current ones get marked down to move.
On Manapool, Reality Fracture Commander Deck Multiverse Reforged (Manapool) fell $67.06 -> $57.97 (-13.55%) on 164 units, from 108, with listings 94.6 -> 132.9 (+40.48%), a 1.2344 sell-through, and $9,507.85 in revenue; Manapool volume rose 52% in the same week the TCGPlayer copy halved, 1,625 -> 757, and the two venues cleared within $1.50 of each other. Foundations Commander Deck Keen Engineering (Manapool) fell $34.53 -> $25.27 (-26.82%) on 6 units with listings 34.9 -> 46.6 (+33.61%), the opposite direction from its TCGPlayer copy’s +7.42%. Tarkir Dragonstorm Play Booster Pack (Manapool) printed $5.65 -> $4.54 (-19.65%) on 20 units in a single order with listings flat at 582.9; one order. Reality Fracture Collector Booster (Manapool) fell $49.04 -> $39.66 (-19.13%) on 29 units with listings 323.9 -> 653.3 (+101.72%); the loose-pack shelf doubled here and grew 67.65% on TCGPlayer. Edge of Eternities Commander Deck Counter Intelligence (Manapool) fell $45.01 -> $37.98 (-15.63%) on 9 units with listings 64.0 -> 71.9 (+12.28%); no catalyst found, small shelf. Reality Fracture Secret Lair Bundle (Manapool) fell $190.93 -> $167.96 (-12.03%) on 9 units with listings 70.3 -> 65.4, the cross-venue echo of the TCGPlayer break. Reality Fracture Draft Night (Manapool) fell $105.78 -> $94.42 (-10.74%) on 8 units with listings 22.6 -> 31.3 (+38.61%), within a dollar of the TCGPlayer $95.39. Marvel Super Heroes Play Booster Display (Manapool) fell $125.74 -> $115.14 (-8.43%) on 5 units with listings 379.9 -> 498.6 (+31.25%), giving back last week’s +11.48%. Reality Fracture Collector Booster Display (Manapool) fell $479.73 -> $442.44 (-7.77%) on 45 units, from 89, and Reality Fracture Play Booster Display (Manapool) fell $153.32 -> $138.70 (-9.53%) on 126 units. Listing growth with soft or flat prices on small shelves, no cause claimed: Reality Fracture Bundle (Manapool) 103.3 -> 134.9 (+30.57%) on 20 units, from 65, at $57.75 (-2.07%); FINAL FANTASY Commander Deck FINAL FANTASY X Counter Blitz (Manapool) 69.3 -> 105.0 (+51.55%) on 4 units at $49.47 (-3.96%); Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Play Booster Display (Manapool) 212.4 -> 325.3 (+53.13%) on 3 units at $106.23. Universes Beyond The Lord of the Rings Tales of Middle earth Set Booster Box (Manapool) held $300.60 (+0.20%) on 15 units with listings 92.3 -> 113.6 (+23.07%).
Supply / Velocity Read-Through
The delayed products landed, and the Collector Display got a markdown instead of a wave. Wizards’ notice has Collector Boosters partially delayed in North America, Omega Collector Boosters delayed, and Bundles ‘may arrive after release’. Oct 4 to Oct 11 close: the Reality Fracture Bundle shelf went 119 boxes / 22 sellers -> 358 / 65, tripled, climbing every day from Oct 5; the Reality Fracture Collector Booster Omega Pack went 13 / 2 -> 19 / 6 with a 32 / 8 peak on Oct 10; loose Reality Fracture Collector Booster went 277 / 28 -> 360 / 33; and the Reality Fracture Collector Booster Display went 265 / 71 -> 262 / 77. Flat. The Bundle shelf is the shape of a delayed shipment arriving, and no source confirms one. The loose Collector Booster growth has a second candidate: Arena Direct paid out Collector Booster boxes to seven-win players Oct 2-11, in a quantity Wizards didn’t publish.
So the Collector Display’s week-two story is price, with supply flat underneath it. VWAP $482.76 -> $440.44 (-8.77%) on 478 units, from 666, sell-through 1.6945 from 3.7729, and the premium over the $323.88 pack-equivalent has gone 76% -> 49% -> 36% across three reports. The supply tiles say sellers 37.9 -> 78.2 and listings +59.81%; that’s the release ramp measured against Sep 28-Oct 1, when the shelf was a fraction of its release size, so the day-level count is the one to use. The largest incumbent cut $519.99 -> $445.25 and went from 39 listed units to 19; the low ask went $465 -> $438.49 and touched $410 on Oct 10. Price down with volume down on flat supply is sellers marking into softer second-week demand.
The Reality Fracture Play Booster Display did get sellers in week two: close 347 / 53 Oct 4 -> 380 / 76 Oct 11, 23 new sellers on a shelf up about 10%, with the low ask $147.98 -> $138.93 and a $129.99 print along the way. It cleared 1,047 units, from 2,020, at $142.02 (-5.10%), 14% under the $164.70 pack-equivalent, sell-through 2.6097 from the 6.0695 record. Still the tightest booster-box shelf on TCGPlayer.
Reality Fracture Commander Deck Multiverse Reforged got the real week-two supply, and the weekly average hides it: avg qty 535.3 -> 475.2 (-11.24%) because the baseline includes a 791-copy preorder shelf on Sep 30 that sold down to 283 by Oct 3. Day level, the shelf went 353 / 45 -> 517 / 75, +46% with 30 new sellers, and the low ask went $50.00 -> $45.25. It cleared 757 units, from 1,625, at $56.55 (-7.85%), 13% over $49.99 from 23%, sell-through 1.5931 from 3.0356.
The Reality Fracture Collector Booster Omega Pack went from two sellers to six, with eight at the Oct 10 peak, and cleared 53 units, from 74, at $46.40 (+4.29%), sell-through 2.8465. The tiles say listings +92.61% and sellers 0.7 -> 5.0 on a ten-listing baseline, so treat the percentages as low confidence; the seller count is the signal. It’s on the delay list, and there’s no official MSRP to measure it against.
The Reality Fracture Bundle is the one delayed product that visibly arrived. Last week the shelf lost a third on the delay; this week it tripled, and the clearing price held above sticker, $61.53 (+3.06%), 6% over $57.99, on 166 units from 439, sell-through 0.6812 from 2.1140. The low ask slipped $56.24 -> $50.00, under sticker, while the VWAP didn’t. The weekly tiles (sellers 25.4 -> 44.2, listings +17.35%) understate the build because last week’s baseline includes a 292-copy preorder shelf on Sep 28. Reality Fracture Draft Night got supply without a delay to explain it: avg qty 121.1 -> 177.5 (+46.57%), sellers 27.1 -> 50.5, $95.39 (-9.54%), 6% over $89.99 from 17%, 74 units from 156, sell-through 0.4170.
The Reality Fracture Prerelease Pack cleared its first kit wave and got a second one listed over the weekend. The shelf went 246 / 22 Oct 4 -> 153 / 24 on Oct 7, then 352 / 39 by Oct 11 close, 17 new sellers Friday to Sunday. Volume fell 810 -> 178 and the price stopped falling, $36.73 (+2.24%) after two straight 14% drops, sell-through 0.8964. The second wave is listed at a price that had only just stopped dropping.
Foundations Commander rose on all five decks because the shelves drained and nobody restocked. The weekly averages show four shelves down 52% to 74%; most of that is release-week stock that sold before Oct 4, and the in-week drains are smaller and real: Foundations Commander Deck Calling All Angels 66 -> 30 boxes, Foundations Commander Deck Tramplesaurus Rex 56 -> 35, Foundations Commander Deck Keen Engineering 178 -> 122. Rex, Angels, Foundations Commander Deck Reign of Dragons, and Foundations Commander Deck Wretched Ranks all sit above 1 on sell-through; Keen’s 0.9307 is the only one of the five under it. Volume fell on all five, 625 units combined from 1,029, $28,009.49 from $39,822.79. Keen Engineering, last week’s top decliner, recovered $26.07 -> $28.01 (+7.42%) on 119 units with avg qty 266.8 -> 127.9 (-52.07%) and sellers 38.0 -> 30.6, and it’s still 7% under the $29.99 sticker, the only one of the five under MSRP. No restock or second-wave news found.
Five weeks out from Nov 13, the Star Trek Collector Booster Display preorder shelf got built by one seller on the last day. It sat at 139 to 175 boxes and 22 to 24 sellers all week, then closed Oct 11 at 356 boxes and 22 sellers because one seller went from 25 listed boxes to 217 at $662.80, 61% of the shelf, with the top-three share going 39% -> 70%. The weekly tiles (avg qty 97.0 -> 183.5, +89.23%, sellers 16.5 -> 22.9) read as a wave; it was one listing. Price $661.37 (-4.80%) on 58 units, from 29, 45% over the $455.88 pack-equivalent. A store listing its full allocation and a distributor-backed listing look the same in our data, and no allocation news picks between them. The Star Trek Play Booster Display built the normal way: close 224 / 18 -> 284 / 23, +27%, spread across new sellers at $152.94 to $153.73, price flat at $152.49 on 107 units, 27% under the $209.70 pack-equivalent. Its +105.46% tile compares against a Sep 28-Oct 2 shelf of 71 to 137.
The LTR Set Booster Box resolved none of last week’s three branches. $300 broke by 22 cents, $305.08 -> $299.78 (-1.74%), on half the volume, 134 units from 253. Sellers went 63.9 -> 66.2, barely climbing, with avg qty 256.8 -> 232.2 (-9.58%) and sell-through 0.5771 from 0.9853. The 37-box $308.99 listing that led the shelf on Oct 4 is gone from the top ten in our Oct 11 snapshot, replaced by new sellers at $304.99 to $306.05. Manapool did 15 units at $300.60 (+0.20%) with listings 92.3 -> 113.6 (+23.07%). The test resets for next week.
The Hobbit held price and gave up volume a second week. The The Hobbit Collector Booster Display did 104 units, from 122, at $707.00 (-0.42%) with avg qty 242.6 -> 261.4 (+7.76%) and sellers 114.0 -> 129.7. The The Hobbit Play Booster Display did 149 units, from 201, at $153.00 (-2.83%) with avg qty 665.5 -> 709.8, the third-heaviest shelf on TCGPlayer. The The Hobbit Collector Booster Pack did 77 units, from 162, at $65.93 with avg qty 531.0 -> 494.4 (-6.89%). Sellers keep arriving on the Collector Display and the asks aren’t following the volume down.
The Fallout line did 558 units across five products, from 235, for $67,437.14, 6.9% of the cohort, with prices down 8% to 22% on four of five, listings up 5% to 29%, and sellers up 13% to 29%; that’s the reprint trickle from the decliners, line-wide. FINAL FANTASY Commander Deck FINAL FANTASY X Counter Blitz grew shelf on both venues the same week, avg qty 196.1 -> 250.6 (+27.81%) with sellers 79.3 -> 90.3 on TCGPlayer and +51.55% on Manapool, price $48.59 (-8.22%) on 50 units from 36. No reprint-wave news found.
| Product | Sell-Through | Avg Qty | Supply Δ | Sellers Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foundations Cmdr Tramplesaurus Rex | 4.7406 | 37.5 | -11.05% | +77.96% |
| Foundations Cmdr Calling All Angels | 3.4340 | 37.9 | -74.44% | -28.04% |
| Reality Fracture Collector Boost… | 2.8465 | 18.6 | +92.61% | +588.31% |
| Foundations Cmdr Reign of Dragons | 2.6612 | 43.2 | -61.04% | -5.97% |
| Reality Fracture Play Booster Di… | 2.6097 | 401.2 | +20.55% | +68.00% |
| Reality Fracture Coll Booster Di… | 1.6945 | 282.1 | +59.81% | +106.41% |
| Foundations Cmdr Wretched Ranks | 1.6561 | 50.1 | -62.94% | -2.84% |
| Reality Fracture Cmdr Multiverse… | 1.5931 | 475.2 | -11.24% | +89.96% |
Tightest inventory on TCGPlayer: Foundations Commander Deck Tramplesaurus Rex (4.7406, avg qty 37.5), Foundations Commander Deck Calling All Angels (3.4340, 37.9), Reality Fracture Collector Booster Omega Pack (2.8465, 18.6, low confidence), Foundations Commander Deck Reign of Dragons (2.6612, 43.2), Reality Fracture Play Booster Display (2.6097, 401.2), Reality Fracture Collector Booster Display (1.6945, 282.1), Foundations Commander Deck Wretched Ranks (1.6561, 50.1), Reality Fracture Commander Deck Multiverse Reforged (1.5931, 475.2). Eight products above 1, from eleven last week; the Bundle, the Prerelease Pack, the loose Collector Booster, and Draft Night dropped under it.
Heaviest inventory on TCGPlayer: Marvel Super Heroes Play Booster Display (815.5 avg qty, from 778.6, sell-through 0.1055), Marvel Super Heroes Prerelease Pack (773.3, from 734.2), The Hobbit Play Booster Display (709.8, from 665.5), Marvel Super Heroes Bundle (637.7), Marvels Spider-Man Play Booster Display (613.1), The Hobbit Gift Bundle (605.2), Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Play Booster Display (591.6), Lorwyn Eclipsed Play Booster Display (588.1), Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Commander Deck Turtle Power (497.5, from 391.1), The Hobbit Collector Booster Pack (494.4, from 531.0), Reality Fracture Commander Deck Multiverse Reforged (475.2, and at a 1.5931 sell-through the only shelf on this list that clears itself).
The located seller pool grew a second week, 578 sellers, up 25 from 553 (583 -> 539 -> 509 -> 553 -> 578), so the release-calendar pattern from last week held through the week after release too. Coverage 100.0%. Washington overtook California: WA 13.7% (14,708 units) against CA 13.6% (14,577), from 10.5% and 13.2% last week, on Seattle going 7,818 -> 10,884 units and Yorba Linda CA 5,446 -> 5,985. Florida grew to 8.8% (9,486) from 8.0% as Kissimmee more than doubled, 1,828 -> 4,258, with Miami at 2,010. NY 5.3% (5,726) from 5.8%; OH 4.6% (4,967); QC 4.0% (4,346); TX 4.0% (4,262); MD 3.1% (3,311) with Silver Spring MD entering the top ten at 1,912; PR 2.9% (3,103); IN 2.6% (2,802). Top cities: Seattle WA (10,884), Yorba Linda CA (5,985), Kissimmee FL (4,258), Quebec QC (2,984), Bayamón PR (2,812), Woodbury MN (2,170, from 2,970), Miami FL (2,010), Silver Spring MD (1,912), Liberty IN (1,879), Westminster CA (1,876). Brooklyn NY and South Williamson KY dropped out.
Last week’s supply averages for Reality Fracture and Star Trek include the Sep 28-Oct 1 pre-release days, when those shelves were a fraction of release size, so this week’s listing and seller deltas on those products overstate what happened Oct 5-11. Day-level close counts, Oct 4 against Oct 11: Reality Fracture Collector Booster Display 265 -> 262 boxes and 71 -> 77 sellers against a +59.81% / +106.41% weekly print; Star Trek Play Booster Display 224 -> 284 against +105.46%; Reality Fracture Secret Lair Bundle sellers 14 -> 14 against +50.76%. The article quotes the day-level figures wherever the average would mislead. probable_restock_signal fired on TCGPlayer for the Secret Lair Bundle (+68.49%), the Collector Booster Display (+59.81%), the Reality Fracture Collector Booster (+67.65%), the Reality Fracture Collector Booster Omega Pack (+92.61%, also baseline_small_supply on a 9.7-listing base), the Star Trek Collector Booster Display (+89.23%), and the Star Trek Play Booster Display (+105.46%). The Collector Display and Secret Lair Bundle flags are the baseline artifact above; the Omega and loose Collector Booster ones sit on Wizards’ delay list; the Star Trek Collector one is a single seller’s Oct 11 listing. Treat the Omega Pack percentages as low confidence. Last week’s baseline moved again: the Sep 28-Oct 4 week published at $1,352,795 across 10,510 units now reads $1,401,835.73 across 10,612 after late-captured sales, and this week’s -30.25% and -33.43% use the revised figures. Manapool listing percentages are computed on shelves of 14 to 650 listings and most of the flagged Manapool supply moves are on 3 to 29 units sold; the Tarkir Dragonstorm Play Booster Pack (Manapool) move is a single 20-unit order. No spike_driven_supply flag fired.
Opinionated Takeaways
The comedown undershot September
A release that pulls a month of demand into one week leaves a hole behind it, and this is what the hole looks like: flat days, no spike, nothing on the calendar until Hasbro on the 20th. If you’re a seller, this is the week to hold asks, not to chase. If you’re a buyer, nothing is moving against you, and the low asks on the Collector Display and the Bundle are drifting toward you.
An announced delay is not durable scarcity
Three delayed or unreleased RF products repriced this week, and in every case the premium went down as the shelf caught up or a single seller called the bluff. September’s premium priced a delay; October’s tape says delays end and light weeks get marked down. If you’re holding preorder-priced Collector or Secret Lair Bundle inventory, you’re the high ask on your own shelf now.
Foundations Commander found its floor by running out
All five decks rose because four shelves drained and nobody restocked, and Rex’s didn’t refill either. Price up with volume down is supply contraction; there’s no demand surge in a line that moved 625 units after moving 1,029. If you’re holding any of the five, the market is paying more because there’s less of it, and that holds exactly until the next carton lands. Keen Engineering is still under sticker.
The booster you’re buying changes in 2027
Wizards said on Oct 5 that from Nauctis, the first 2027 set, Play Boosters become Booster Packs with no guaranteed foil and Japan Showcase cards in traditional foil, Collector Boosters lose three foil commons and uncommons, and God Packs land at 1 in 1,000 Booster Packs and 1 in 300 Collector Boosters, with Universes Beyond sets getting them in 2028. Prices unchanged. Every 2026 Collector Booster box on this tape is the last of the current configuration. I don’t know yet whether that’s a premium or a footnote, and I’d watch the Reality Fracture and Star Trek Collector tiers for the answer.
What To Watch Next Week
Reality Fracture week three and the Secret Lair Bundle into Oct 23. Does the Collector Booster Display hold a 36% premium at $440.44 on a flat 260-box shelf, or does the $410 low ask from Oct 10 become the clearing price? Does the Bundle’s tripled shelf, 358 boxes across 65 sellers, push the price under the $57.99 sticker? Does the Secret Lair Bundle keep sliding toward $89.99 as release stock lands, and does the 62-unit seller get undercut? Does the Omega Pack shelf grow past 20 listings?
Two shelf tests. LTR, reset: sub-$295 with sellers above 70 is wave two winning; sell-through back above 1 with sellers flat is the floor holding; Manapool listings at 113.6 are the cross-check. Star Trek: does the 217-box Collector listing move, do other sellers follow it to $662, and does the Play Display’s price hold 27% under pack-equivalent if the shelf doubles again?
Hasbro Q3 earnings, Tuesday October 20. Confirmed for before the open with the call at 8:30 AM ET; no guidance change or analyst preview surfaced this week. Same three things I’m reading on the call: WotC growth against the mid-single-digit guide, Consumer Products inventory into Q4, and whether the 5 to 7% full-year guide moves.
— The MTGsold Team
Calculation Notes & Disclaimers
- Metrics are based on MTGsold internal sales/listing snapshots for the report window only.
avg qty= average of daily inventory (most complete scrape per day, by seller coverage), not a sum of all intraday listings.sell-through=units sold this week / avg qty this week; values above 1 indicate inventory turned over multiple times.- Percentage changes are week-over-week versus the prior-week baseline; very small baselines can exaggerate % moves.
- Listings are marketplace snapshots and may include relists, temporary removals, and scrape gaps, so flagged low-confidence moves should be treated cautiously.
- Marketplace sections are segmented to avoid cross-stream blending of metrics.