Weekly Report (Sep 28–Oct 4, 2026)
Weekly Market Pulse
- Revenue
- $1,352,795▴ from $1.25M
- Units Sold
- 10,510▴ from 8,633
- Sellers
- 553
- WoW Revenue
- +8.3%
Wizards told North American stores Play Booster availability ‘may be tighter’ through release. The TCGPlayer shelf for the Reality Fracture Play Booster Display grew 56.70% instead, sellers went 23.0 -> 42.9, the price dropped $171.36 -> $149.64 (-12.67%), and the sell-through still set a record at 6.0695 on 2,020 units. Supply arrived, and demand ate it. Price down with volume up is sellers competing at scale as product lands. That $149.64 is 9% under the $164.70 you’d pay for thirty packs at the $5.49 WPN MSRP.
Every RF product moved toward sticker in one week. The Reality Fracture Collector Booster Display went $571.18 -> $482.76 (-15.48%) on 666 units, from 352, and its premium over the $323.88 pack-equivalent fell from 76% to 49%. The Bundle cleared at $59.70 against a $57.99 MSRP. Draft Night sits 17% over its $89.99. Multiverse Reforged sits 23% over its $49.99. September’s preorder premium was pricing a delay, and the Collector tier is the only place half of that premium is still standing.
TCGPlayer did $1,352,795 across 10,510 units and 8,726 orders over 75 products, revenue +8.3% from $1,249,028 and units +21.7% from 8,633. Release day alone did 2,811 units and $336,731, double the Monday-to-Wednesday run rate. RF took $822,737 of it across 6,105 units, 60.8% of the cohort, up ten points from last week’s 50.4% and a fourth straight week above half. The Hobbit line paid for it: $148,944 across 754 units, down from $245,636, while its Collector Booster Display held $709.97 (-1.16%) on 122 units. Release week pulled wallet share from Hobbit without touching Hobbit’s price.
Manapool did $117,268 across 762 units and 551 orders over 33 products, up from $89,408 across 589. RF drove $82,741 of it across 530 units. The Reality Fracture Collector Booster Display (Manapool) did 89 units at $479.73, within three dollars of the TCGPlayer VWAP, and the Reality Fracture Play Booster Display (Manapool) did 133 units at $153.32 with listings 151.1 -> 259.3. Loose Reality Fracture Play Booster (Manapool) listings went 384.6 -> 1,707.6 on 27 units at $5.71. The same release supply landed on both venues the same week.
| Product | Revenue | Units | VWAP | WoW |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reality Fracture Coll Booster Di… | $321,517.79 | 666 | $482.76 | -15.48% |
| Reality Fracture Play Booster Di… | $302,282.75 | 2020 | $149.64 | -12.67% |
| Reality Fracture Cmdr Multiverse… | $99,722.16 | 1625 | $61.37 | -11.61% |
| The Hobbit Coll Booster Display | $86,615.74 | 122 | $709.97 | -1.16% |
| UB LOTR Set Booster Box | $77,184.53 | 253 | $305.08 | -7.25% |
| The Hobbit Play Booster Display | $31,649.34 | 201 | $157.46 | -0.56% |
| Reality Fracture Prerelease Pack | $29,095.30 | 810 | $35.92 | -14.11% |
| Reality Fracture Bundle | $26,209.14 | 439 | $59.70 | -1.86% |
| Star Trek Coll Booster Display | $20,147.60 | 29 | $694.74 | -0.51% |
| FF Play Booster Display | $20,110.21 | 81 | $248.27 | -0.23% |
Top Gainers
- Price
- $93.56+22.98%
- Units
- 2525 orders
- Sell-through
- 0.3450
- Avg qty
- 72.5-5.66%
- Sellers
- 46.8-4.47%
Tarkir Dragonstorm Commander Deck Sultai Arisen leads TCGPlayer gainers, and it’s last week’s top decliner doing a round trip. Twenty-five units this week, twenty-five last week, and the shelf didn’t move either way. The three-week path is $95.72 -> $76.08 -> $93.56. Nothing changed except which twenty-five copies sold.
- Price
- $52.90+19.36%
- Units
- 186183 orders
- Sell-through
- 4.4061
- Avg qty
- 42.2-53.51%
- Sellers
- 10.4+5.19%
Foundations Commander Deck Tramplesaurus Rex is the only Foundations Commander deck whose price rose in launch week, and it did it on a shelf that halved. Last week I asked whether Rex keeps its separation from the other four once release supply lands. It widened it. The other four moved 843 units combined at markdowns while Rex cleared 186 at $52.90, 76% over the $29.99 MSRP. PreconForge has it at $78.12 in singles, top of the five, so the market is paying for the cards and treating the rest of the set as volume.
- Price
- $240.10+16.87%
- Units
- 4846 orders
- Sell-through
- 0.5452
- Avg qty
- 88.0+6.43%
- Sellers
- 9.4+41.73%
A third of last week’s volume carried the Reality Fracture Secret Lair Bundle higher on TCGPlayer, 48 units against 150. The drain I flagged last week stopped: the shelf edged up and sellers came back (6.6 -> 9.4). The cheap copies cleared and what’s left is asking more. Low-volume repricing on nine sellers.
- Price
- $40.23+9.22%
- Units
- 2316 orders
- Sell-through
- 0.2245
- Avg qty
- 102.5+1.21%
- Sellers
- 22.0-2.95%
Last week’s 25.64% supply contraction is what’s lifting the Lorwyn Eclipsed Collector Booster Pack on TCGPlayer. The shelf held flat this week and 23 units cleared at a higher ask. Eight months out, the Collector tier keeps finding buyers at whatever the thinned shelf asks, twenty-three of them this week.
- Price
- $39.06+8.33%
- Units
- 2121 orders
- Sell-through
- 0.1255
- Avg qty
- 167.3+4.76%
- Sellers
- 63.0+0.49%
Twenty-one buyers paid a bit more for Bloomburrow Commander Deck Family Matters on TCGPlayer while nothing on the sell side changed. Volume was down from 36 and the shelf was slightly deeper, which is all a thin week looks like.
- Price
- $34.49+7.36%
- Units
- 2525 orders
- Sell-through
- 0.0924
- Avg qty
- 270.4-13.28%
- Sellers
- 81.7-4.83%
Volume halved on Lorwyn Eclipsed Commander Deck Blight Curse, 50 to 25, and the TCGPlayer price rose anyway because the shelf contracted 13.28% underneath it. Fewer buyers, fewer copies, higher clearing price. The supply side is doing the work.
On Manapool, FINAL FANTASY Play Booster Pack (Manapool) climbed $6.53 -> $8.80 (+34.73%) on 16 units, from 6, with listings flat at 254.0. FINAL FANTASY Collector Booster Sample Pack (Manapool) rose $11.00 -> $12.42 (+12.97%) on 20 units. Marvel Super Heroes Play Booster Display (Manapool) rose $112.79 -> $125.74 (+11.48%) on 4 units. Bloomburrow Play Booster Pack (Manapool) rose $6.13 -> $6.56 (+6.97%) on 28 units. Mystery Booster 2 Booster Display (Manapool) rose $281.25 -> $296.15 (+5.30%) on 8 units as listings slipped 45.1 -> 38.0. FINAL FANTASY Play Booster Display (Manapool) rose $229.50 -> $239.16 (+4.21%) on 15 units with listings 56.1 -> 38.7. Reality Fracture Draft Night (Manapool) rose $102.06 -> $105.78 (+3.64%) on 11 units with listings 41.6 -> 22.6. All of these ran on 4 to 28 units and shelves under 260 listings.
Top Decliners
- Price
- $26.07-34.08%
- Units
- 177160 orders
- Sell-through
- 0.6635
- Avg qty
- 266.8+17.99%
- Sellers
- 38.0+75.19%
Foundations Commander Deck Keen Engineering leads TCGPlayer decliners, and it launched under MSRP. The $26.07 clearing price is 13% below the $29.99 on the box. Sellers went 21.7 -> 38.0 and units went 30 -> 177, so this is a supply-side markdown launch: new sellers arriving on release day and competing straight down through the sticker. It shipped the same day as Rex at the same sticker and went the other way.
- Price
- $46.73-21.64%
- Units
- 341164 orders
- Sell-through
- 1.6382
- Avg qty
- 208.2+188.72%
- Sellers
- 18.1+191.92%
Reality Fracture Collector Booster flipped from last week’s gainer to this week’s decliner on TCGPlayer, and release supply did it. Last week the loose-pack shelf was shrinking while stores cracked displays. This week listings went 72.1 -> 208.2 and sellers 6.2 -> 18.1 as release packs landed, and the per-pack premium over the $26.99 MSRP fell from 121% to 73%. The restock flag on this one is the release itself. Three hundred forty-one packs still cleared.
- Price
- $482.76-15.48%
- Units
- 666582 orders
- Sell-through
- 3.7729
- Avg qty
- 176.5+68.19%
- Sellers
- 37.9+87.24%
Reality Fracture Collector Booster Display fell on TCGPlayer and was still the top revenue product in the market at $321,518. Volume nearly doubled, 352 -> 666, the shelf grew 68.19%, and sellers went 20.2 -> 37.9. The premium over the $323.88 pack-equivalent compressed from 76% to 49% in seven days. If you paid last week’s $571.18, the market repriced you $88 lower on double the volume. The Collector tier kept more premium than anything else in the line.
- Price
- $94.52-14.57%
- Units
- 8542 orders
- Sell-through
- 0.2569
- Avg qty
- 330.8-6.93%
- Sellers
- 61.7+1.23%
Marvel Super Heroes Jumpstart Booster Display fell on TCGPlayer with volume more than tripling, 25 -> 85, and the shelf shrinking 6.93%. Buyers took the lower price in size. Nothing external explains the markdown; the Marvel line has been softening since launch and this is the Jumpstart box finding the level where it moves.
- Price
- $35.92-14.11%
- Units
- 810554 orders
- Sell-through
- 2.3384
- Avg qty
- 346.4-12.79%
- Sellers
- 28.4+39.12%
Reality Fracture Prerelease Pack dropped a second straight 14% on TCGPlayer, and it keeps clearing faster at each lower ask. Units rose to 810 from 690 and the sell-through climbed to 2.3384 from 1.7372 while the shelf contracted 12.79% and sellers grew 20.4 -> 28.4. The Manapool copy fell harder at -18.63%. That looks like leftover kits getting listed after the events and meeting buyers who want six packs for under $36.
- Price
- $87.25-13.28%
- Units
- 5252 orders
- Sell-through
- 0.3118
- Avg qty
- 166.8+28.02%
- Sellers
- 72.5+14.98%
Universes Beyond Fallout Hail Caesar Commander Deck fell on TCGPlayer as the shelf grew 28.02% and sellers went 63.1 -> 72.5. Scrappy Survivors got supply the same week (listings +40.46%, sellers +23.13%, price -7.47% to $82.34). Two Fallout decks gaining shelf together on volume that more than doubled is product arriving, and no reprint or restock news explains it.
On Manapool, Reality Fracture Prerelease Pack (Manapool) fell $41.21 -> $33.53 (-18.63%) on 49 units, from 23, with listings 25.3 -> 127.6. Reality Fracture Collector Booster Display (Manapool) fell $556.47 -> $479.73 (-13.79%) on 89 units, from 37, listings 47.9 -> 97.1, revenue $42,696. Reality Fracture Collector Booster (Manapool) fell $56.85 -> $49.04 (-13.75%) on 25 units, from 6, listings 75.3 -> 323.9. Reality Fracture Commander Deck Multiverse Reforged (Manapool) fell $70.70 -> $67.06 (-5.15%) on 108 units with listings 55.3 -> 94.6 and a 1.1420 sell-through. That’s the release landing on Manapool on shelves a tenth the size of TCGPlayer’s. Lorwyn Eclipsed Play Booster Display (Manapool) fell $129.48 -> $115.09 (-11.11%) on 8 units, giving back last week’s gain. The Hobbit Collector Booster Display (Manapool) fell $783.64 -> $714.71 (-8.80%) on 12 units, from 3, with listings flat. Universes Beyond The Lord of the Rings Tales of Middle earth Set Booster Box (Manapool) fell $319.82 -> $300.00 (-6.20%) on 12 units with listings 51.4 -> 92.3, the cross-venue echo of the TCGPlayer wave. Edge of Eternities Commander Deck Counter Intelligence (Manapool) slipped $45.37 -> $45.01 (-0.79%) on 12 units with listings 46.4 -> 64.0; no catalyst found, small shelf.
Supply / Velocity Read-Through
Every one of the eleven tightest products on TCGPlayer is Reality Fracture or Foundations Commander. The Reality Fracture Play Booster Display sold 2,020 units against a 332.8 average shelf, a 6.0695 sell-through, up from 5.8054 in prerelease week. Listings grew 56.70% and sellers 86.34%, and it still turned the shelf six times.
The Reality Fracture Collector Booster Display posted a 3.7729 sell-through on 666 units with listings up 68.19%. The Reality Fracture Commander Deck Multiverse Reforged did 3.0356 on 1,625 units, from 1,408, with the shelf shrinking 13.66% (avg qty 620.0 -> 535.3) and sellers growing 27.2 -> 35.1. Its VWAP fell $69.43 -> $61.37 (-11.61%), 23% over the $49.99 MSRP, so volume rose and the shelf shrank while the price came down, which is repricing at scale.
The Reality Fracture Bundle is the one RF product where the shelf went the other way. Avg qty 315.4 -> 207.7 (-34.16%) with sellers flat, 439 units sold, sell-through 2.1140, VWAP $59.70, under two dollars over the $57.99 sticker. WPN lists Bundles as delayed and possibly arriving after Oct 2, and the shelf lost a third while the price sat at sticker. The Reality Fracture Draft Night went the opposite direction: listings 54.0 -> 121.1 (+124.23%), sellers 11.6 -> 27.1, flat volume at 156, so the sell-through halved to 1.2884 on the bigger denominator. Its $105.45 is 17% over the $89.99.
Foundations Commander Deck Tramplesaurus Rex posted a 4.4061 sell-through, from 2.4997, with the shelf halving (avg qty 90.8 -> 42.2). The three decks below it all cleared shelf at markdowns: Foundations Commander Deck Reign of Dragons 1.8212 on 202 units (from 112), avg qty 155.8 -> 110.9; Foundations Commander Deck Wretched Ranks 1.7896 on 242 units (from 78), avg qty 182.5 -> 135.2; Foundations Commander Deck Calling All Angels 1.4989 on 222 units (from 82), avg qty 185.7 -> 148.1, sellers 16.0 -> 24.0. Those three sit 21% to 34% over the $29.99 MSRP. Keen Engineering is the only one of the five where the shelf grew. Five decks moved 1,029 units for $39,823.
The LTR Set Booster Box crossed the line I set last week. Sellers went 48.7 -> 63.9, past 50, listings grew 26.70% (avg qty 202.7 -> 256.8), and the price fell $328.93 -> $305.08 (-7.25%) on 253 units, sell-through 0.9853 from 1.4852. By our own criterion that’s wave two, and no reprint, distributor, or liquidation news explains where the product is coming from.
Star Trek Collector Booster Display preorder listings nearly doubled on TCGPlayer, avg qty 50.8 -> 97.0, sellers 13.1 -> 16.5, with the price unmoved at $694.74 on 29 units. Six weeks out from Nov 13 and the shelf is being built. The Star Trek Play Booster Display went the other way, avg qty 145.2 -> 125.2 on 87 units at $153.58.
The Hobbit gave up share without giving up price. The line did $148,944 across 754 units, from $245,636 across 981. The The Hobbit Collector Booster Display did 122 units, from 229, at $709.97 with the shelf down 3.64% and sellers flat at 114.0. The The Hobbit Play Booster Display did 201 units, from 254, at $157.46 with avg qty 634.8 -> 665.5. The The Hobbit Gift Bundle did 87 units, from 213. The The Hobbit Collector Booster Pack shelf grew a second week, avg qty 431.3 -> 531.0, on 162 units at $65.64. Buyers went to the new set and the Hobbit asks didn’t follow them down.
Universes Beyond Fallout Scrappy Survivors Commander Deck shelf grew 40.46% (avg qty 114.2 -> 160.5) with sellers 55.4 -> 68.2 on 25 units at $82.34, the pair to Hail Caesar in decliners. The Lost Caverns of Ixalan Commander Deck Explorers of the Deep shelf grew 30.34% (avg qty 41.7 -> 54.3) on 30 units at $95.74, and neither has a catalyst anyone has published.
| Product | Sell-Through | Avg Qty | Supply Δ | Sellers Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reality Fracture Play Booster Di… | 6.0695 | 332.8 | +56.70% | +86.34% |
| Foundations Cmdr Tramplesaurus Rex | 4.4061 | 42.2 | -53.51% | +5.19% |
| Reality Fracture Coll Booster Di… | 3.7729 | 176.5 | +68.19% | +87.24% |
| Reality Fracture Cmdr Multiverse… | 3.0356 | 535.3 | -13.66% | +28.85% |
| Reality Fracture Prerelease Pack | 2.3384 | 346.4 | -12.79% | +39.12% |
| Reality Fracture Bundle | 2.1140 | 207.7 | -34.16% | +4.97% |
| Foundations Cmdr Reign of Dragons | 1.8212 | 110.9 | -28.81% | +32.67% |
| Foundations Cmdr Wretched Ranks | 1.7896 | 135.2 | -25.89% | +39.24% |
| Reality Fracture Collector Booster | 1.6382 | 208.2 | +188.72% | +191.92% |
| Foundations Cmdr Calling All Angels | 1.4989 | 148.1 | -20.25% | +50.37% |
| Reality Fracture Draft Night | 1.2884 | 121.1 | +124.23% | +133.30% |
Tightest inventory on TCGPlayer: Reality Fracture Play Booster Display (6.0695), Foundations Commander Deck Tramplesaurus Rex (4.4061), Reality Fracture Collector Booster Display (3.7729), Reality Fracture Commander Deck Multiverse Reforged (3.0356), Reality Fracture Prerelease Pack (2.3384), Reality Fracture Bundle (2.1140), Foundations Commander Deck Reign of Dragons (1.8212), Foundations Commander Deck Wretched Ranks (1.7896), Reality Fracture Collector Booster (1.6382), Foundations Commander Deck Calling All Angels (1.4989), Reality Fracture Draft Night (1.2884), with the LTR Set Booster Box falling off the list at 0.9853.
Heaviest inventory on TCGPlayer: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Prerelease Pack (826.0 avg qty), Marvel Super Heroes Play Booster Display (778.6, sell-through 0.1952), Marvel Super Heroes Prerelease Pack (734.2), The Hobbit Play Booster Display (665.5, up from 634.8), Marvel Super Heroes Bundle (643.1), Marvels Spider-Man Play Booster Display (609.6), The Hobbit Gift Bundle (601.0, down from 642.3), Lorwyn Eclipsed Play Booster Display (589.5), Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Play Booster Display (574.0), Reality Fracture Commander Deck Multiverse Reforged (535.3, and at a 3.04 sell-through it clears itself three times a week), The Hobbit Collector Booster Pack (531.0, up from 431.3).
The located seller pool came back: 553 sellers, up 44 from 509, after two weeks of contraction (583 -> 539 -> 509 -> 553). So far the pool’s size has moved with the release calendar, down for two weeks between releases and back up the week RF shipped, and the state mix moved with it. Coverage 100.0%. Top states: CA 13.2% (13,555 units), WA 10.5% (10,712), FL 8.0% (8,194), NY 5.8% (5,896), OH 4.3% (4,446), QC 3.7% (3,826), TX 3.7% (3,742), AZ 3.4% (3,488), MN 3.4% (3,478), OR 3.3% (3,414). Washington more than doubled its share from 4.5% as Seattle returned at 7,818 units, from 1,592 last week. California grew from 9.6% with Yorba Linda CA appearing at 5,446. Florida recovered from 6.1% with Miami (1,932) and Kissimmee (1,828) back in the top ten. Kentucky dropped out as South Williamson KY fell to 2,154 from 4,537. Top cities: Seattle WA (7,818), Yorba Linda CA (5,446), Woodbury MN (2,970), Bayamón PR (2,804), Quebec QC (2,584), Liberty IN (2,352), South Williamson KY (2,154), Brooklyn NY (1,994), Miami FL (1,932), Kissimmee FL (1,828).
Reality Fracture Collector Booster, Reality Fracture Collector Booster Display, Reality Fracture Play Booster Display, and Reality Fracture Draft Night (all TCGPlayer) carry probable_restock_signal on supply surges of +188.72%, +68.19%, +56.70%, and +124.23%, which is the Oct 2 release landing. Last week’s baseline moved: the Sep 21-27 week published at $1,231,403 across 8,532 units now reads $1,249,028 across 8,633 after late-captured sales, and this week’s +8.3% and +21.7% use the revised figures. Manapool listing percentages this week are computed on shelves of 10 to 130 listings and no spike_driven_supply flag fired, so a percentage there is a count of boxes. One Manapool supply anomaly with a 10-listing base and 4 units sold is excluded from this report on that basis.
Opinionated Takeaways
Supply arrived and demand ate it
Forty sellers landing on the same day couldn’t push the Play Booster Display’s sell-through down; it went up. Scarcity may still be helping the Collector tier. It can’t explain a Play Display clearing 2,020 boxes under MSRP. If you held off in September waiting for release product, you did the right thing. If you’re a seller sitting on preorder-priced inventory, the shelf has already repriced around you.
September’s premium was pricing a delay
Seven days of release supply took most of it out. Play Display holders are already under sticker. The only tier where any of that premium is still standing is Collector, and half of it is gone. The next test is whether Collector’s remaining half survives a second week of supply, because the Play tape says sellers will keep arriving.
Foundations Commander split in two on launch day
The market decided on day one which deck it wanted and marked the other four as volume. If you’re holding Rex, the shelf under you halved and the price followed the singles. If you’re holding any of the other four, you’re holding product that launched at or under sticker with sellers still arriving, and the premium is shrinking while you wait.
Hasbro reports October 20 and the bar is set low
The test on the call is whether Wizards beats a guide management set low on purpose. After a $545.3M Q2, up 32% and the first $500M-plus Magic quarter, the one that carried operating profit for the whole company, they guided WotC Q3 to mid-single-digit growth and Q4 to a decline. Analyst consensus is EPS $1.86 to $1.88 on roughly $1.47 billion. Universes Beyond and backlist demand are what would beat that guide, and our tape says Q3 closed with the biggest TCGPlayer week of the last four. The drag is Consumer Products, where the late-March cyber incident cost about $25M of revenue and tariffs sit in the input costs going into the holiday build. Digital spend is being cut about 25% by 2028. I’m watching WotC operating margin, 40 to 45% is the range, and whether the 5 to 7% full-year guide moves. The call is 8:30 AM ET.
What To Watch Next Week
Reality Fracture week two. Does the Play Booster Display hold under the $164.70 pack-equivalent as the 2,811-unit release day normalizes toward the 1,400-a-day run rate, or does the price rebound as sellers thin out? Does the Collector Display keep its 49% premium? Do the four markdown Foundations Commander decks find a floor under Rex’s $52.90, and does Rex’s 42-listing shelf refill?
LTR wave two. Sellers crossed 50 and the price fell to $305.08. If this wave absorbs the way the first one did, the price is back above $320 by next report. If seller count keeps climbing and $300 breaks, this is more than a slug. If sellers fall back under 50 and sell-through gets back above 1, the floor holds. Manapool listings at 92.3, from 51.4, are the cross-venue check.
Hasbro Q3 earnings, October 20. WotC growth against the mid-single-digit guide, Consumer Products inventory into Q4, operating margin, and whether full-year guidance moves. The take lands the morning of the call.
— The MTGsold Team
Calculation Notes & Disclaimers
- Metrics are based on MTGsold internal sales/listing snapshots for the report window only.
avg qty= average of daily inventory (most complete scrape per day, by seller coverage), not a sum of all intraday listings.sell-through=units sold this week / avg qty this week; values above 1 indicate inventory turned over multiple times.- Percentage changes are week-over-week versus the prior-week baseline; very small baselines can exaggerate % moves.
- Listings are marketplace snapshots and may include relists, temporary removals, and scrape gaps, so flagged low-confidence moves should be treated cautiously.
- Marketplace sections are segmented to avoid cross-stream blending of metrics.